Index Impacts 12.0
Noteworthy from the Notebook!
I am still suffering from a mild whiplash case after staying up to watch that Brewers/A’s game in Vegas, but I wanted to touch on a number of fairly recent SP performances and how it relates to general Index movement. Let’s just whip around on a bunch of guys that have caught my eye, or whose situations appear to be changing. Also do not freak out about Kyle Harrison, the stuff was fine, just some very difficult circumstances!
Shane Drohan/MIL— It feels apropos that we begin again this week with him. I think he’s going to keep earning his spot in this rotation. The turn in COL was borderline excellent, especially when accounting for the fact that the runs were on some blown defensive plays and awfully weak contact. If for some reason you are still waiting around after my information last week, I would not hesitate any longer. He can pitch and the stuff is there. I pointed out all the tangible changes with his pre-pitch set up and the mechanics smoothing out are allowing the stuff to tick up. The change up is still in his back pocket and could propel him to better heights yet. There are still some role risks to weigh, but I think he’s positioning himself for the latter 50s/early 60s part of my ranks. Woodruff is being certain to take his sweet time, and I don’t see Henderson being apart of the picture until mid/late July. Plenty of pathways for Drohan to make himself essential for summer.
Ian Seymour/TB— Another lefty with an intriguing opportunity. Tampa has finally decided to get him into the mix after slow playing the beginning of the season. He’s thrown plenty of innings in the minors and should be able to conceivably operate from the rotation the ROS. It’s never been about stuff with Seymour, he’s just an excellent locator and moves his stuff around the zone well. Plus it’s a wipeout change up and decently enough shaped FA to play. He’s just been a little unlucky on the heater, but it’s been better lately. The remodeled sweeper has really popped to me on video and has great promise. The main issue, besides some role ambiguity, is the mid ceiling and mid floor combo. HRs look to be a coming issue, as a fly ball forward arm with a danger zone PullAir% rate. He is still good deep league material because the K’s and home park buoy the profile. Ty Johnson is another pivot for Tampa to keep a close eye on.
Jake Bennett/BOS— We are developing a theme here. Bennett is coming up Thurs and likely can hold a rotation spot with some solid turns. He’s morphed some of the pitch mix and arsenal since going back to AAA, to the point where he pretty closely resembles Early. We’ll see how it plays out in the bigs, but I am grabbing him in plenty of spots to see. It’s a profile I tend to like, unique movements in varying velo bands, with the command to overachieve. Plenty of ground balls and a strong backing defense, along with enough stuff to generate bat missing.
Hunter Dobbins/STL— He appears poised to enter the Cards rotation, it might be a 6 man for a stretch, but he’s another guy that I don’t mind speculating on. The stuff for success is there, and this situation is pretty good. He has a true 6 pitch mix where everything moves in a fairly varying manner. His main secondary, the slider, has gotten hit hard in the small big league sample, but he has a number of solid looking other secondaries he can pivot to. Both the split for lefties and the sweeper for either handed hitter flash. HRs could be an issue, so I am still unsure on the floor scenarios.
Trey Gibson/BAL— I was a fan of the profile for this pop up guy last year, despite a rough finish at AAA. Unfortunately the bat missing just isn’t present and it’s going to make things very difficult to find traction. He’s looking more like a sinker/slider relief pitcher, at least until the other two offerings, the cutter and curve, begin showing a lot better. There is still stuff and movement present, but he’s not a guy I’d recommend right now. Churn and burn.
Logan Webb/SF— I urged patience here and think my evaluation that the early ramp up for the WBC coupled with him trying to gut out a minor knee issue, were indeed the culprits. He looks back in charge on the mound again, and in especially difficult assignments. Arrow is pointing up again!
Market Movers by the Mid Tiers
The June Ranks are playing extremely well thus far, so I will focus more on the middle area to identify some guys that are headed in both directions, primarily based off of recent performance, but most importantly how it was achieved.
Tier 7:
I thought I was being well ahead of market, giving Roki Sasaki/LAD a sizeable boost after a pretty good May rank, but he’s really taken his game up a notch—something I touched on last week and urged folks to buy in for. I think he’s getting pretty close to bumping into the late 30s of the Index, all he really needs are those command gains to hold, because the stuff is running that pure. Connor Prielipp/MIN hasn’t had the best results lately, but do not give up, as the stuff and bat missing is still plenty prevalent, he’s trending up for me. I stuck a little firm, but still adjusted Sandy Alacantara/MIA down a ways. He’s backed it up with some fairly useful turns lately and is getting closer to gaining some trust. It’s still going to largely depend on babip fortunes with him, but he’s sequencing better. I don’t see him getting back into the 40s or anything, but he can at least marginally pitch up a little when running like this. Michael Wacha/KC is battling through some regression and will likely slide down a tier, but I wouldn’t give up hope either, he has these stretches and then will go out and shutdown a good team. I am generally fine with the position I started Troy Melton/DET out in, but there is little doubt he’s over his skis somewhat. Things are about to get crowded in this DET rotation and that has to be in the back of our mind. I would consider attempting to sell high based off the surface stats.
Tier 8:
I think the Gage Jump/ATH rank was pretty much dead nuts, but they are starting off a big home stand and some of the good batted back luck might begin swinging the other direction. He’s still a hold for me, but there is going to be a fine line between being startable and being a streamer. My trio grouping of lefties all feel like they are moving up; Wrobleski, Griffin and Cameron. It feels especially true for Noah Cameron/KC, who has found that plus curve from last year and it’s made all the other more fringe stuff play up. Joey Cantillo/CLE is heading in the other direction, like I predicted. I adjusted Randy Vasquez/SD well down and he is no longer looking like anything more than a streamer, as the stuff just hasn’t managed to hold. Keep rolling with Grant Holmes/ATL, as he’s gotten the secondaries going again and unlocked some more optimal sequencing lately.
Tier 9:
There is going to be quite a bit more movement in this volatile territory of the Index. Walbert Urena/LAA is locating his stuff a bunch better and there are big growth avenues for him if he can keep it up, as the sweeper has really fostered a lot of this. Griffin Jax/TB had just made an abbreviated turn when I updated, but he’s been able to shake it off and hold his own. The stuff is clearly there, especially throttling back off of the FA, I just don’t think there is a real big ceiling to chase, as they don’t seem inclined to remove the 5 inning shackles. I still think he can be useful in this iteration, especially in leagues where SPaRPs are boosted. Dustin May/STL has made good on my aggression, as the sweeper has been in total command lately. He is still likely too dependent on babip luck, but maybe not as much as I originally thought, given how he has nerfed down the sinker usage. With the present stuff, he’s got a good look at moving into the mid 60s area of the ranks. Both Christian Scott/NYM and J.T. Ginn/ATH look like they are figuring it out and have a shot to really move up. Hopefully Tyler Mahle takes his time, because I am really enjoying Trevor McDonald/SF, and his fairly robust floor. He works all over the zone and simply passes my eye test. I think I got duped by David Sandlin/CHW and his debut, the stuff still does flash a little and he’s been finally working upstairs some, but the command is still more average, in that he’s finding the heart way too often.
Tier 10:
Basically the last stop for mining values in the Index, and there really isn’t a ton to report for movement here. I do want to hit on Tatsuya Imai/HOU, who turned in another good/useful turn. Nobody more than me would like this to pan out, it is just really difficult when he’s so two pitch forward. The FA command was better and the slider is looking borderline elite with it’s unusual action and being located so strongly in the under zone. Nothing else really shows for me, but he can move up the ranks as long as the in zone command keeps static. Kumar Rocker/TEX is doing just enough to remain interesting, mostly because of his home park and arm talent. I still don’t like the command and the 1st inning issues remain. Just give the dude an opener. Luis Castillo/SEA is back into the rotation for now, but the floor is really dicey and HRs will be an issue. He’s been poor at home, which was really the main thing keeping him relevant. I just want to note he’s always been good in the month of June and then superb in the month of July throughout his career—then he falls well off, so there is a possible path to utility for a stretch here, and likely the last real hope, even with his velo up a bit.
Thank you very much for reading! Please share my stuff if you think others might enjoy the work. I will probably be fairly silent for a little bit, as I am flying my father in on Thursday for a week to watch my daughter play her home tournament. I’ll do my best to handle any big happenings, otherwise be sure to check my dedicated thread on: forums.bettoringreen.com (St. Steven 2026 Outlook, pinned at the top of the main fantasy baseball talk board) as I keep up with questions and quick hitting analysis there. Take care guys, and always feel free to ask anything in the replies here or in the paid subscriber chat/DMs. Likes on the app/website are very appreciated, too!
Hi Steve. Any quick thoughts on Kirby? The results obviously haven’t been too good lately. Good luck to your daughter in her tourney, enjoy