Snap Reactions 11.0
BIG News!
I’ve got a small window with my schedule being shuffled around a bit today, so I decided there were enough things happening to justify another brief write up. We’ll cover the past few days and general stuff happening in the SP market place.
Andrew Painter/PHI— Obviously, he’s a guy that I have been well ahead of the general experts on, and I expected much better. It’s just not happening for him and I can no longer endorse holding him, outside of deeper/dynasty setups. I do believe it will happen eventually, but he’s just not there right now. It’s been largely what I was most afraid of— the FA is simply not good and does not look like it will come around. The secondary stuff is plenty fine and the slider can get really get it done, but when you throw a pitch, the FA, around 40% of the time, and it stinks, then there isn’t much wiggle room. Regardless, this was the rub and known from jump street, so I should have done a better job for you guys. The locations were not bad last night and the HRs were not exactly based on missing spots egregiously. He’s not working the upper quadrant very well and that’s another real issue. The dead zone FA could work okay, but he’s clearly apprehensive about operating in the top part of the zone with it, and the movement on both of the fastballs has largely evaporated. He’s still generating really good chase and the xStats feel like he’s been quite unlucky, but the eye test does not lie, and I don’t think this feels likely to turnabout in short order. We move on—not looking back in anger, as it was a proper attempt, given the cost associated.
Walbert Urena/LAA— He should be slightly more than a footnote, given the general state of the pitching landscape. It’s an odd profile to digest, esp given his young age. He’s very change up forward, even to righties, and it works because it’s a very nasty offering. The main issues are the FA is dead zone with it’s shape, the sinker isn’t good and there isn’t any other sort of breaker that can be relied upon, as the sweeper shows quite little. His locations the other night leave a lot to be desired, too, as he was way too middle cut. CLE is next and we stream almost anyone against that offense, so there is some promise in deeper leagues. There just isn’t likely much to be excited about long term here.
Ben Brown/CHC— He is poised to step into the rotation and makes for a grab in almost any format. I’ve always been higher on him in general, despite being basically a 2 pitch guy, because those pitches shove pretty good. He’s now folded in a second fastball, a 2S variety, and it’s generating enough arm side action to be useful. Even the change up shows some promise, much like last year, but he hasn’t brought it out nearly enough. Perhaps that changes when trying to turnover a lineup multiple times, especially to the lefties. The curve is really good and the 4S FA plays with it’s velocity. He goes today in TEX and even though he’s not stretched out, he is interesting. We want guys making starts for the Cubs and there is absolutely nothing in their pecking order to challenge him, he’ll get 4-6 weeks of runway.
Christian Scott/NYM— It remains very FA forward with him, but that sweeper shows enough to make him an interesting investment. That FA is still sitting 96+ mph and ticking over 98. The main apprehension I have is that he’s doing good work in the upper quadrant, but the lower part of the zone is far too ignored and he’s still missing too much over the heart. IF he starts landing the sweeper in the low in the zone, then we are cooking and can get more excited.
J.T. Ginn/ATH— That might have been a little unexpected, but his stuff has been showing well enough in the small sample. Nerfing back the sinker and sequencing it better has been the real difference for him. He’s a ground ball guy, which was always his path to beating back the rough home park situation. The cutter isn’t very good and could spell his ultimate demise, but I really like the change up and his slider is showing differently, generating better downward action than ever before. There is just enough here to make him interesting, should the command stay in a tenable area.
Griffin Jax/TB— It feels weird, but as I said in the last piece, he does warrant watching closely in deeper leagues. He’s showing a pretty decent 6 pitch mix and generally holding his stuff. He still hasn’t worked deep enough to assume that it can remain static, though. His locations in the lower part of the zone looked good. He should be close to ready for around 75-80 pitches his next turn, at TOR. Setting up a 2 step the following week, home against BAL and then at NYY, so probably best to watch this play out from the sidelines, except in 15+ team leagues. Do not forget about Joe Boyle either, he went 2 innings in AAA the other day with no hits, 1BB and 4K.
Shota Imanga/CHC— All my optimism has been thoroughly backed up, as he continues to miss an insane amount of bats and look absurdly confident on the bump. The split is basically untouchable right now and the locations are immaculate.
WHIP Around
Cade Povich/BAL does not appear to be rosterable, outside of deep formats, as the bat missing isn’t popping near enough and now he’s suffering from an injury. Rhett Lowder/CIN is a clear drop, and I am wondering if that shoulder was partly to blame for his blow up last week, we churn and burn. I missed Drew Anderson/DET in my analysis of the Tigers rotation the other day, but he is worth watching, should they stretch him. He’s looked a lot better lately, too. Zebby Matthews/MIN is looking like a call up to me, he’s pitching much better in AAA of late, so now is the time to speculate. SWR is terrible and Abel suffered a setback, lining Zebby up to get another opportunity in short order. Ethan Pecko/HOU goes today in AAA and should be close to getting a shot for the Astros. It’s not big stuff, but he knows how to work with it. He has 22 strike outs and 2 walks in 13 IP this season, and even with Imai due back shortly, he is likely better than McCullers. Bryce Miller/SEA seems to be nearly ready and even with some ambiguity around the role (and his general health outlook), he is absolutely worth stashing everywhere. The experts were finally burned by over-ranking Luis Castillo for the 3rd season, as he seems destined to be demoted. I do not like any of the info trickling out around Cole Ragans/KC, but we 100% need to hold and let this play out, even if an IL stint feels likely. Be sure to hold Matthew Boyd/CHC, as he may only miss about 6 weeks after a minor knee operation.
Big day with the Robbie Snelling/MIA debut, but I’ll also have an eye on Griffin Canning/SD, Chase Dollander/COL, Keider Montero/DET, Ryne Nelson/ARI and Carmen Mlodzinski. Have a great weekend and thank you for reading!
Picked up Keider Montero in my Deep limited moves league and very happy to have him. Dropping Painter next week prioritized Brown, Lambert, Sproat in order. Could not get Logan Henderson as expected but got Ben Brown(and Keider Montero who did not get picked up.) right afterwards. Due to your 2 great pitches comment on Brown. Fingers crosed it works!
Question.......... Brown, Lambert, Sproat is that the order you suggest? Also feels that the Sproat early missteps are still in the minds of most for another week or so.