Snap Reactions 13.0
SPs Popping Off!
Good day to everyone! There have been some noteworthy performances the past few days, so I wanted to pop up a quick hitter piece. Let’s get right to it.
Reid Detmers/LAA— I last left you guys with a pretty large jump for Detmers, going from #74 > #48 and said I felt like we could be seeing a “Kyle Harrison-like rise to prominence.” 3 outings since and it is very much feeling that way. It hasn’t been super splashy lines that have followed the masterful 14K performance, but it’s really solid work and firming up that floor. Let’s also not lose sight that they’ve been against TB, LAD and the very righthanded HOU lineups. Everything is working in the 4 pitch mix, the zone plots look great and the sequencing has been optimized. The work upstairs in the zone last night was superb and then finishing with the slider underneath the lowest quadrant was also killer. He’s feeling like a top 30 type moving forward. Maybe someone in your league still doesn’t believe, so check it out.
Drew Rasmussen/TB— That was a massive ceiling display. The Red Saux didn’t even look interested in dealing with him, just flailing early and often. So many whiffs and such strong work with the FA. He’s being so damn efficient that even Kevin Cash can’t pull him early. It’s still very three FA centric, but he has those secondaries in the bag when he feels like it, as both the curve and change up were located well in the lowest zone. He’s approaching no doubt Top 20 status, even with the risks and innings issues.
Paul Skenes/PIT— He’s been relatively living in this middle ceiling space for more than a minute now (with lots of batted ball nonsense), but I am happy to report he appears to be working his way out of it. It was some excellent general work with a high degree of difficulty to consider. I don’t think it’s quite enough for me to rank him above #3 for the July/ROS update, but we’ll get into a preview piece soon enough.
Brandon Young/BAL— I’ve paying attention a little here, as I did kinda like him coming up the org ladder for the O’s, but that debut was crash and burn, where the stuff readings did not translate. His May was mostly low ceiling/mid floor work, but solid enough, despite some walks and harder contact. June has seen even more improvement, in regards to the command, especially. The FA was fine enough last year, getting by with great shape/IVB, and this year it’s been a little better—though also a little luckier. It was also down almost a tick last night, but nothing alarming. He’s got a true 5 pitch mix, it’s just that he has nothing truly strong with the secondaries, at least outside of how the slider is working, especially against RHH. The split is being located at the bottom quadrant quite well, too. He’s also altered that splitter lately, as it’s almost 4 mph slower, but gaining 5” of drop. He commands it well and lefties are chasing it. It was still a little heart heavy last night overall and the curve doesn’t seem like an actual weapon. He deserves better treatment than I gave him in the last Index, so I can see him being a late 90s type that can be added in some formats, just given this workable run that he’s been on, just remember it’s a very fine line with this sort of stuff and the command/locations have to be nearly pinpoint.
Brandon Sproat/MIL— I really thought they were setting him up as a sacrifice to the Vegas alter, allowing for a soft demotion or reset, but that is why we love baseball—as he went out and pounded the zone and got ground balls. Side note, that Vegas infield was also a pretty big issue, though nothing as bad as the other factors. There was a moment in the middle innings, after an “Alika Williams” little league HR down the LF line, where he could have spun out like usual, but he stepped up and shutdown the top of the A’s order. He was much more efficient finally, and located a bunch better. Hopefully it’s a true jumping off point for him, with this sort of stuff he just needs to gain some confidence. The mechanics were a lot cleaner last night and the cutter showed strong.
George Kirby/SEA— Well he finally found those missing K’s. It wasn’t perfect, but at least he’s made a concerted effort to trim down the arsenal and focus on his three best pitches, going very 4S FA/2S FA/Sweeper forward last night. I think that good curve is pretty much gone, but you can never tell with these M’s arms and their tinkering. It should be noted that these three mains were all up about a full tick. The locations/zone plots were very good. The underlying metrics show that the bat missing is coming, so think about hopping on board if you can locate a decent deal for his services.
Carlos Rodon/NYY— I remain steadfast on his rank, as he finally is pushing past his typical Spring Training period and the stuff looks very sound across the spectrum. The main thing I am noticing in the video looks is that you can see his legs getting tired after about 60 or so pitches and it affects the command. Both he and Cole are basically getting in ‘shape’ on the fly here and it will likely only get stronger for them from here on out. It was a few too many non competitive pitches here, but pretty solid shadow zone work and general locations.
Davis Martin/CHW— He’s been plenty good, but this was a statement-like bounce back for him after meeting some turbulence. He used the entire 6 pitch mix and kept the Braves off balance for much of the night. The release points and tunneling efforts become very clear when you watch him work and help explain the success. He was precise at the top of the zone and damn near surgical in the lower quadrant—especially underneath it, generating really good chase with the curve and slider. The cutter command really stood out to me as well. There has to be some correction coming, but there is plenty showing to allow him to pitch through that, and even thrive yet.
WHIP Around
Brandon Woodruff/MIL will be back next week after a complex league start. He’s talked a lot about how he’s attempting to lower his arm slot on the fly, an obvious way to alleviate some of the shoulder stress. Look, guys have done this before and found something, but Woody is like a robot to me, and he’s always been a 43/44 degree guy his entire career. It could work as long as the stuff sits similar to last year’s version—at the minimum. We just have no idea what is coming, and it feels very uneasy to me. Garrett Crochet/BOS went from not even having a real setback (according to him) to having a full blown bad setback…reminding us to never really trust these guys about their health self-diagnosis. August could be the best case now, and it really stings. Hunter Brown/HOU looks like Hunter Brown from the metrics and video, so do not hesitate to immediately place him into your lineups. Never believe anyone that comes up with some bullshit about watching that first start off the IL from the sidelines.
Hopefully you did not miss out on that Dylan Cease/TOR return, I know I did not. He looked beyond phenomenal. The change up is totally changing the calculus with him and the command is so improved. He’s a top 10 arm, or very close moving forward, but I had him top 12 before the slight hammy issue. Ryne Nelson/ARI is such a frustrating watch on video, it is just a constant roller coaster, even inning to inning. I would blame anyone for giving up if they have a suitable pivot play option, but try and be patient for another 10 days to see. Prayers out to Seth Lugo/KC, who took one off the bean and it looked bad. He walked off and seemed relatively normal, but this has IL stint written on it, and we just hope this doesn’t totally derail a valuable pitcher.
J.T. Ginn really impressed me the other night and is likely worth the trouble of clearing the Vegas portion and long home park run of the schedule with. He has the stuff and mound demeanor I really enjoy. Taj Bradley/MIN simply does not look the same and isn’t a must hold, despite being the type I like as backend/bench fill. Troy Melton/DET sort of had that coming, as I said, but try and hold on until things become more clear with so many Tiger arms returning. I ran Max Meyer/MIA way up the ranks and even when he doesn’t have all his stuff, there is enough there for him to find a suitable floor, which is very encouraging. Dustin May/STL looked nice again and the schedule sets up very well for this to continue.
That about clears out my notebook from the past few days! Thank you for the continued support of my stuff. I would be grateful if you saw fit to come aboard as a paid subscriber. It only costs a few bucks a month and you gain access to the full top 150 Arms Index—plus top 50 IL and prospect stash list. I also offer a chat and DM services for roster questions, too. I can continue rising these analyst ranks with your help. Please also consider sharing my content to others and any engagements/likes really help with the Substack algorithm! I always respond to comments, so don’t hesitate to hit me up with anything. Take care guys!