Snap Reactions 14.0
Noteworthy from my Notebook!
I feel comfortable with how I updated the Top 30+ earlier this week and believe most of that will stick. This is just a semi quick hitter from stuff the past few days that caught my eye. Please consider coming aboard as a paid sub, just look at my testimonials, I may be small time, but I am making a big mark for folks—and the results keeps getting better. I won’t be outworked in this niche space, that I can guarantee. I will find us an edge in the margins and push the right buttons for value adds. Let’s go!
Nolan McLean/NYM— It feels like this was a turning the corner type of start. The FA was absolutely nails and located really well. The breakers did the sort of stuff we expect as well. Locations and zone plots were strong. It’s likely too early to declare he’s back-back, but we can at least feel good about having him in our lineups again. A home 2 step awaits v CHC/PHI, which looks somewhat foreboding on paper, but is not all that bad in reality.
Kyle Bradish/BAL— The zone plots and video were better, which is a relative compliment compared to how things have looked recently. The curve returned in a big way, and the breakers continued the recent trend of being thrown much harder. Even the FAs were up in this turn. Bat missing is paramount in our game and that could not have looked much better. He also lines up for a split 2 step against the Angels and Nats, teams he has a fine track record against, and I am plugging him in for these turns without thinking twice.
Nick Lodolo/CIN— I’ve never been particularly high on him, but this has been really poor. The stuff registers fairly normal, but the K’s are well down and the command simply isn’t there. His reverse splits are even worse and righties are connecting for power. He makes both of his next two turns against the Brewers, and maybe it works, as he has a pretty strong track record against them, but there is no way to feel great about this, just given what we are seeing with him.
Sandy Alcantara/MIA— I obviously dropped him in the June update (back to where he basically began for me) but he’s been able to provide non-damaging ratios and work his usual innings, stuff I am happy to have for a guy in the late 60s of the ranks. He remains very susceptible to babip swings, but has been locating and commanding a lot better. TEX at home is next, but he follows that with probable road turns at COL and at ATH. Can’t feel very good about that, but given the general state of pitching, I can see trying to gut that out and risk the possible downside.
Shane McClanahan/TB— It’s not been exactly pretty here lately. I took a slight amount of flack for not rising him in the ranks, but my suspicions were generally correct and they simply aren’t interested in getting him the requisite innings we need from front line SPs. Oddly, the FA has been really cooking recently, up several ticks, but not really commanding it all that well. It’s not missing by all that much, so this still reads as a highly positive development. As does his upcoming schedule, with home turns against the hot/cold KC and ARI lineups. He might make for a fairly shrewd ‘buy right’ in points leagues. All his secondaries are registering quite favorably and the FA has greater potential at the new velo bands—should that prove to be static.
JR Ritchie/ATL— He’s a guy that I always felt was underrated by most, but he’s not been able to meet expectations, either. I still think he’s worth the trouble, as he just needs a little better sequencing of the 6 pitch mix. Nothing exactly stands out and the locations need to improve, but these are still the shots to take, just given the arm talent and situation. Road starts against (likely) the Pads and Giants only aide the case here. He needs to prove it relatively quickly to have sustainability.
Peter Lambert/HOU— He’s been saving my staff on a number of deep league teams, so that buys him some rope. The control has been a little better lately, but I am not very certain about the actual command here. Way too many offerings are landing middle/middle, and he’s been fortunate to not have them punished. If his 4 pitch mix wasn’t this strong, I’d recommend hopping off, but the 4S FA plays, and so do all 3 of the secondaries. He lines up for at TOR and at DET next week, not super warm feelings about those, but I also think you let it ride and play him. Confidence is crucial for these types and he has to feel good at this stage.
Jake Bennett/BOS— I am still pretty intrigued here. Sitting 94 from the left side and gobbling up grounders is not the worst way to stick around. The issues revolve around the actual command, though. He’s all over the heart on video and the FA is well above the top rail of the zone. If he can correct that on the fly, then we are cooking. The change up plays, the sinker is plenty functional and the curve ball generally works. He hasn’t featured it much, but I’d like a lot more sweepers, too. You can wait it out in 12T leagues, but anything deeper, he feels like a decent enough flyer to take. Just beware that at COL and home against the Yanks await…not very enticing. But at LAA after that, should he stick.
Gage Jump/ATH— He continues to make my semi bold placement of him look wise. He simply tosses strikes and moves the ball around the zone very well. Staying off barrels and suppressing hard contact is a skill, and one that he is showing off. The 4S FA was down about a tick last night, but he also tossed 107 pitches, so do keep that in mind. The video and zone plots really stood out, as he’s working the periphery of the zone very well and staying underneath with the curve and slider. With at SF and home v MIA coming, I would keep the faith.
Ryan Weathers/NYY— It’s usually never clean with him, but the stuff is plenty present and we take the good with the bad. Last night was mostly quite good, and a reminder why we don’t cut bait with quality arm talents. The change up was particularly disgusting, and that remains the beacon indicator when he goes well. The sweeper is plus and he just needs to work in that slider a tick more. Going top rail with the FA more would also be nice. He’s lining up for at DET and at BOS next, and I will be playing him in all formats.
Shane Drohan/MIL— It really could not have lined up much better, getting a shell-shocked CLE lineup on getaway day, but alas, this is baseball. It was not bad by any means, but it still felt like a minor letdown. They moved him up in the rotation to give Miz some extra rest, so that is part of the calculus here. His FA wasn’t as crisp and the locations were mostly just a hair off. The curve looked really good to me and the slider was more than fine. Do not lose hope here, he’s a good bet moving forward.
Jack Leiter/TEX— I simply have to own the L on him, no way around that. It’s still a bet I’ll make 10-outta-10 times, but he just can’t dial in the command, and it’s crushing his viability. I’ll still likely rank him in that late 80s/early 90s territory, because nobody is really a threat to his job, but you are free to cut for better speculative adds. Just remember that he’s still likely to figure it out at some point.
Trey Yesavge/TOR— That is more like it. The locations are still an issue and the command will waiver from time-to-time, but he still has the stuff we seek. I was awfully aggressive with his Index placement, and that likely needs to be corrected some, but his blueprint remains the same, and the slider is a true needle mover. He mixed in some really well placed FAs low in the zone, and that helped the split play up. I suspect the K’s are coming here as he dials everything in.
Shane Baz/BAL— I am quite glad I stuck with him in the ranks, he is on a pretty solid heater and gaining confidence with every turn. I don’t think he’s fully trustworthy, as the floor is a little scary, but the stuff is there for this to work out. The curve was less than it’s usual self here, but it still will play plenty fine moving forward. The cutter was really zoning up and helps everything work better. Top rail FAs were looking good, too. I don’t anticipate moving him up much, as he was adequately placed for June, but we can feel pretty good about using him right now.
Sean Burke/CHW— He was a pretty pleasant surprise in April and despite worse surface stats in May, he was actually throwing better. June has been not so good, as the command seriously eroded, but then he just went out and shoved last night. A tricky eval, to be certain, but he’s definitely on the deep league radar. The 4S FA went up nearly 2 full ticks last night, and coupled with it’s excellent shape, makes it a foundational sort of offering—should this velo boost hold. Top quadrant work was outstanding and the lower zone was plenty fine. The curve and slider are present and it makes him worthy of our attention, I still suspect the floor might be dicey, as he’s fly ball forward and the PullAir % rates leave HRs on the menu.
Parker Messick/CLE— This was pretty awesome work, and in a very tough spot. I was ultra aggressive in moving him up to vaunted territory last month and even though he’ll scoot back some with all the aces returning, he remains a top 20 SP for me. The stuff has been incrementally ticking up and now he went out and sat 96 mph with the FA yesterday (all his offering were well up). That is excellent, but we keep in mind he was also working on extra rest. It’s not all the stuff with him though, his locations are outstanding, as is his feel for sequencing and general command. I don’t pay much attention to projections for ceiling, and this is exactly why. Just watch him, see the pitchability and how he utilizes deception in his motion, works all the zone quadrants. Most raw numbers evaluators are going to be way behind on these sorts of breakthroughs, but that is why you guys see fit to support my work!
WHIP Around
I’ll keep this short and mostly injury adjacent. Brandon Woodruff/MIL should be back next week and I’d hazard a guess that it spells the end of Gasser in the rotation, but perhaps not, with Sproat being forced from his last start. Shane Bieber/TOR will make his season debut on Mon, lining up for home starts against HOU and TEX. The results on rehab don’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, but it will all come down to the command. I am seeing good enough velo and breakers on tape for this to work. Given the general pitching landscape, I can endorse giving him the immediate green light, just keep the expectations in check. Hunter Greene/CIN is back and throwing his usual gas on rehab. Get him now and reap the future benefits by mid July. Eury Perez/MIA is also looking like his normal self, from a stuff perspective, on rehab. I think he’s a good enough gamble to take. Clay Holmes/NYM remains a viable stash for Aug/Sept, if you have the luxury of IL space, which I pretty much do not. Still keep him on the watch list and try to beat the market in a couple weeks.
Max Fried/NYY is taking his time, which is good, I don’t think this was all that bad of an issue, at least as far as elbows go, so I highly recommend trying to pry him from an owner. He’s got league tilting capabilities when he returns. Mick Abel/MIN is a great target, if available for you, whether via trade of free agency. His stuff looks normal and pretty damn good. I’ve went out and got him in two leagues this week. Matthew Boyd/CHC is also a target for augmenting our rotations with solid quality. Noah Schultz/CHW is set to begin a rehab assignment next week, don’t lose track of him in deeper formats. Nick Pivetta/SD has been increasing his throwing distance and intensity, he is still a long ways off, and a major setback risk, but could be very useful by mid August.
Take care guys and thank you kindly for reading and supporting my stuff. Have a wonderful Fri and Father’s Day weekend. My daughter has another tournament weekend on tap and there is no place I’d rather be!