Snap Reactions 4.0
Noteworthy from the Notebook
Lots of good pitching information to cover from the past several days. I decided to get this out in lieu of a full Arms Index update—which hasn’t radically shifted in the past week. I think another week of data will help me push the correct buttons and put out a more impactful list for next week, prior to heading down to FL for Spring Training. One thing is clear in the early action, most of these pitchers have not only shown up in good shape with their arms, a lot of them are relatively deep into their throwing progressions, most visibly, the ones that are participating in the WBC. As I’ve repeated, the results are mostly irrelevant, but we get peeks of arsenal shifts and velo/shape pitch metrics that do matter. Let’s rundown my notebook!
Nolan McLean/NYM— As I’ve shared in a few spots, the video and pitch metrics from his start yesterday are NSFW. It will cause a bump, and I’m sure you’ll see a lot of these bigger pubs catching up to my already robust ranking (#17) of him. So for me, it was a little reinforcement, but nothing remotely surprising. This is a clear potential top-of-the-rotation arm. We don’t want to overreact to an early ST start, but it’s all there, and it’s fantastic. Some may try to poke holes in the FA shape, but he’s more sinker forward and the package of secondaries is so strong. I am not entirely thrilled that he’s heading to the WBC, but he’s obviously been preparing, and I don’t think they’ll be permitted to do anything overtly dumb, in regards to pushing him. The velo and stuff yesterday was nothing that unusual for him, he stayed within his superb mechanical base very well. It’s nice to see the cutter and change up sit around 2.5 ticks higher, that will really help the stuff play up. I think most lose track of the fact that he was very deep into his innings when he came up for the Mets last season—and he’s still largely developing as a true pitcher. This is why I’ve been so high on him from the jump. He has a ton of the peripheral factors that I loved about Skenes. It was an electric first step for McLean.
Chase Burns/CIN— Did the Reds simply clone Hunter Greene, because it sure looks like they have. We are still going through typical ST machinations when it comes to these supposed rotation competitions, so take the ‘uncertainty’ draft discount and profit. It’s really that simple. There is no possible way the CIN brass can justify keeping an arm like this in the minors. He looked disgustingly good yesterday, already rocking an untouchable slide piece. I obviously would have liked to see the change up more, and I believe we will, it can be an actual weapon and not simply theoretical—it has those sort of harbingers, in my opinion. I’ve been aggressive in my overall rank, as he sits #22, and it’s plenty comfortable.
Tyler Glasnow/LAD— I’ve stayed rather muted on my enthusiasm for him (and most all Dodger arms besides Yoshi and maybe Sheehan). It’s mostly a situational/practical thing, just like last season. If you see my original ranks update from December, I made note of the mechanical alterations that Glasnow showed after returning late last year. These things can take time, and he looked more comfortable the other day. It could aide his ability to stay healthy, by lessening the stress on the elbow and not being late with his arm action. The stuff is still plenty present and I think the upside justifies a slight bump in the ranks, even if we have to work off the assumption that a full season is more unlikely than a lot of the guys around him.
Ryan Weathers/NYY— Whoa boy, that was about as close to pitching porn as you will see in February, and my loyal readers were likely totally unfazed by it, as I’ve always been the high guy on Weathers. The detractors are going to cite that we’ve seen these flashes (esp in ST) before and they never stick, which is fine, but we don’t really have to pay up in draft capital—at least yet. I had him at #65 in the update last week, but the upside probably warrants a tick more aggression on my part, and you will likely see that next when the new update comes out. Here is what I wrote in my Index Impacts piece, number 2.0, from the day the Yanks made the trade acquisition:
“I think this was a near masterstroke type move from the mostly dormant Cashman and the Yankees FO. The risk with Weathers is obvious, but so is the filthy stuff. He’s continued to make adjustments with his mechanics and arsenal the past couple of years. I’ve often wrote about how I really like the new MIA pitching development staff, but I still view this as an upgrade in that department. The Yanks have a great handle in that space and it’s exciting that they now get their mitts on a 26 yr old with a great foundation. It’s mostly anecdotal, but I really like the idea that Weathers will be spending a ton of time with Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. Perhaps picking up some useful tips regarding when to ramp back some of the velo and also learning some grip/seam shifts on the change up or slider. Weathers looked fantastic last spring training, displaying growth with the FA and secondaries, also sporting smoother and simpler mechanics. Then it was a series of ‘stuff that happens’ with arms we like, including a forearm and later a lat issue—also a strange incident where the catcher popped him in the back of the head with a toss down and likely concussed him. In between all of that we still saw all the sort of dynamic stuff to dream on, and hopefully the Yankees will now be the beneficiary. The FA was up a full tick, and it wasn’t just the velo, he altered the shape and picked up another inch of iVB. The change up was the main secondary and flashed plenty. The sweeper continued to be a monster and he folds in a sinker and slider to round out the 5 pitch mix. The firm slider continues to exhibit traits that scream for the Yanks to expand upon—especially considering their MO.”
Bryce Miller/SEA— Maybe the elbow is finally right, at least it sure looks like the guy I was so high on last year again. The FA velo was back and so was the command, the secondaries all flashed, too. He’s going to be moving up, no doubt about it. I will be breaking up the technical ‘injury’ tiers because this stuff, while relevant, is in the past and we need to focus on what can happen. Miller is going to be a difference maker if this display is moderately sticky.
Jose Soriano/LAA— don’t let a couple meh results performances dissuade you, just hope that it will for the more casuals. His stuff is great and even the locations are looking strong. As I always say, “these are the shots to fire” when it comes to arms. I remain bullish on Soriano and that isn’t likely to change.
Matthew Liberatore/STL— he’s a guy that I’ve kept fairly depressed in the ranks, mostly due to limited bat missing prowess, but he definitely caught my eye yesterday. The mediocre FA was up a little, which matters, but he’s got a good trio of secondaries. The change up usage is what looked different. He was getting a bunch more swing and miss with it, utilizing it as an out of the zone finisher will change the calculus with him, giving him a legit pivot for righthanded batters. He’s trending up and bears watching more closely.
Rubber Bumps/Quick Pitch Notes
Elmer Rodriguez/NYY made his second start of ST and now heads out to the WBC. This was a better display, even though the first one was quite solid. He just has the sort of things I look for in young arms. It’s not stuff that will blow you away, but he knows how to deal it. The slider and splitter were particularly impressive yesterday, as was his command. He’ll get starts at some point, but there likely remains too much in his way to stash for most redraft leagues. Gavin Stone/LAD sort of falls into a similar bucket. He made his short debut the other day and the change up looks as good as ever. The FA velo was also back, which was no guarantee after the shoulder was basically shredded. Just too much stacked in his way for stash-ability, but he’s back on the radar. Cade Cavalli/WAS impressed me in his first look the other day, he remains a grossly underrated arm, and a guy we can coax some solid early season utility from. Aaron Ashby/MIL made his first start of ST yesterday and looked solid for a couple innings, he said after the game that he is being fully stretched as a SP and then they’ll see what happens. Obviously deep league only, but absolutely nobody (but me) has seemed to take notice. His stuff is great and I think they want a lefty in the rotation, so this one might actually come down to the end of spring training.
The #5 spot in PIT sure seems like a wide open competition. Jose Urquidy/PIT looked okay, and that is pretty much what can be expected for him. I still think Hunter Barco/PIT will get a legit shot here and I also thought Carmen Mlodzinski/PIT was impressive in his debut, he has some sneaky stuff. Deep league value can be mined here, so we need to pay attention to how this plays out. Will Warren/NYY looked very crisp the other day, he’s a great sleeper, as the bat missing is very legitimate. I like him as an early season guy to deploy, the longer term outlook is what keeps him a little suppressed for me. Another deep league situation is in Sac Town, I get the feeling that J.T. Ginn/ATH will need to be re-inserted to the ranks, as he looked good and seems like a front-runner for the #5 spot, at least early on. I’ve been low man on Troy Melton/DET all offseason and now he has an elbow issue. They’ve been telling us all along that they didn’t want to rely on him and sometimes you just have to believe in what they say through their actions. Drew Anderson/DET is legit and will be starting games. Melton is just a deep league IL/dynasty stash until we get to the bottom of his issues. Jacob Latz/TEX looks improved from a possible command standpoint, he is going to win the #5 job easily, and will bump up the ranks.
Finally we did get another FA signed (wake up Giolito/Littell) and it was Max Scherzer re-upping on a modest deal from TOR. It’s being billed as a wide open competition and he’s supposedly in shape and close to ready to take the bump. The top 4 Jays are locked in for me, so this is likely a merciful death knell to Berrios (at least at some point) but could also be a reaction to whatever is going on with Ricky Tiedemann/TOR—who can likely be crossed off any stash list now. They needed the depth and Mad Max can be a little useful, but still a poor bet to be healthy. I really liked the quick glimpse of Cody Ponce/TOR the other day and will be all over cheaper shares of him this season, he’s a candidate to surge up the Index.
Please do consider coming onboard as a paid sub! You will get full access to my SP Top 175 ranks and analysis, including the imperative—and not remotely duplicated—top 30 in-season IL stash list and my full SP prospect coverage. Not to mention, access to me in a paid subscriber chat/DMs for roster management. I respond to all my guys, ask any of them. I am not a victory lap guy or one that disparages anyone in the industry, but I can make a legitimate difference for your success when it comes to pitching. I’ve been doing just that for 7+ years now, see my testimonials. I am very close to getting my Best Seller badge back and it would mean a ton to me. Thank you and be sure to tune into The Arms Index update next week!
thanks! did you get a chance to see Snelling?
Gonna be drafting weathers high and praying his arm holds up!