The Arms Index
Hot Stove Top 200 SP Ranks
Welcome back to the baseball season my friends, this is The Arms Index for 2026. I am attempting to work on my brevity, especially as it pertains to my cold openings, but I do have a new influx of followers, so I want to make sure they understand my angles from the jump.
This will be my second year on Substack (in a few months) but I’ve been formulating and publishing my ranks for the 7th consecutive time this season. It started out because I was frustrated with what was available in the industry when it came to pitchers, more specifically the total lack of content for points leagues. I have a background in baseball, you can read my bio if you choose here— https://substack.com/@stevenulrich2/note/p-156208648?r=55wipp&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web —and have been playing a variety of games in the fantasy realm for 20+ years now. My style has always been predicated on watching games, charting pitches and analyzing the raw pitch metrics and how they marry with the lines that were achieved. There is so much gray area that can suggest excellent harbingers for future value in the SP space, especially when taking a holistic overlay, as I do. I also focus a lot of energy on the prospect landscape (I did a top 65 of just SP prospects for 2025 last season) and think that a premium evaluator needs to have their pulse on the next wave of guys that can augment the position, because we all well know attrition comes at SPs like no other spot in baseball.
This is the earliest I’ve ever done a Top 200 ranking, but I believe this will be a solid jumping off point for 2026, and there are already plenty of guys that I want my subscribers to be out in front on. One thing —that may be obvious— it all seems so rosy right now! We know the guys that are not likely to be an early factor and nearly everyone is ‘on schedule’ with their respective offseason throwing programs, etc. It leaves an absolutely loaded list below, one that is a challenge to parse, but we all know what starts to happen as soon as February. Especially considering it’s going to be an early/long Spring Training and the WBC will have somewhat of an impact on our season. I’ve never seen a #75-150+ that had this many arms that I am interested in, part of that is my prospect tier directly after the Top 100, but things just feel very deep, for the moment.
Onto the ranks! As always, these are formed completely from scratch, as they are every update. My blurbs are completely organic and nothing (other than my logo) is derived from any sort of AI, and never will be. This is 100% me here. They are done through a points league lens, where pitchers tend to rule, but are meant to be broadly applied to all forms of fantasy play. Things will always be influx, and especially as actionable info pours in regarding injury timelines, free agency destinations and role impacts. I will stay on top of everything for us and make adjustments when we learn these things. Otherwise I will stay working on my prospects list and begin to layer in video content as I progress with my next steps.
This is a great time to come back onboard or get in with my content. Please read my testimonials, they speak volumes! I will find us major edges in the margins and be honest about my analysis. I will never make excuses either. I am an older school guy that utilizes all the new school analytical techniques and won’t forcefully inundate them upon you. My formula knows how to incorporate them and not build everything on their back.
The following ranks are fully blurbed through the entire 200 and tiered, likely one of my most comprehensive pieces yet.
Paul Skenes/PIT— On top again, like last year. His floor remains practically unrivaled and he has the ability to level up the ceiling with a few more innings.
Garret Crochet/BOS— The innings jump did not affect him, which is something I’ve long believed, given his fitness and mechanical repeatability.
Tarik Skubal/DET— It’s really hard to remain as dominant as he has, and there were no signs of slowing in the playoffs. I am generally fine with the top 3 in any order, that is how even things are.
Hunter Greene/CIN— The arm is so electric, I think it’s now time to watch his full ascent into a front-line fantasy ace. The growth in the secondaries are enough for me to take this leap.
Bryan Woo/SEA— Health factors mostly stabilized and maybe that can remain static enough for him to accelerate the near best floor in baseball to a more robust ceiling.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto/LAD— There wasn’t an analyst as I high as I was 2 years ago, I backed off a slight tick last year, which was more circumstance related, but he had such a fine season. It was only magnified during an insane post-season run of excellence. It was a long season, but they protected his arm well.
Cristopher Sanchez/PHI— It was clear in metrics from 2024 that he was taking a leap up with the K’s, and he did. The floor/ceiling combo that I stress is foundational with him, he is just a rock solid SP1 for builds.
Hunter Brown/HOU— None of last year was a surprise to me, though I am not banking on much in the way of further growth.
Chris Sale/ATL— a fluke injury likely cost him a top 3 CY type season, all the key skills remain intact for another great year and elite per start option.
Logan Gilbert/SEA— he has so many great ingredients, but has a struggle inning that screws up too many turns. He —like most M’s SPs— had issues away from the home park confines, but that had never been a problem prior.
Max Fried/NYY— the sum of parts always keeps Fried pretty high in my ranks. The stuff is plenty good and his repertoire runs really deep, even if the K’s seem to ebb and flow and won’t quite keep up with the very best.
Cole Ragans/KC— the numbers never quite got a chance to normalize for him last year, but it all points to an ace adjacent staff leader.
Logan Webb/SF— It all was feeling great with him, until it wasn’t. It happens, but overall he did what makes him so important to builds; ate up a lot of quality frames —fueled by grounders— and even boosted his K’s. Heading into his age 29 season, with his situation, I really like the investment cost.
Spencer Schwellenbach/ATL— This won’t shock my longer subs, I’ve been far out in front of the industry on him and see no reason to back off now. Some of this might be contingent on what we see in Spring, but he does not require that added velo we saw last season to dominate. He’s an elite level athlete with advanced command of a deep/varied arsenal.
Jacob deGrom/TEX— he turned down the volume with his stuff in order to absorb a larger innings load, it was mostly fine for him and think it has a solid shot to still show for a large portion of the season.
Shohei Ohtani/LAD— it was immediately clear that his stuff was all fully intact, and incredible. The situation just never was able to allow for proper fantasy utility in our game. I think that will be different this year, even if it’s one start /week and they stay a little careful.
Nolan McLean/NYM— this might seem aggressive, and that’s fine, adjust to your leagues accordingly. I am enamored with his profile, as I typically am with elite level athletes that show this much—this quickly. The whole bag is visible, with more present command than I ever expected.
Freddy Peralta/MIL— good old Freddy, the wins helped cover up what were still general issues with efficiency. There were some decent gains, especially in the secondaries. My belief is MIL would need to be blown away with an offer to deal him, which I doubt it coming.
Joe Ryan/MIN— a trade feels fairly likely in the near future and I think that would allow for a slightly better ceiling. It’s still a great total package when the secondaries are straightened away.
Jacob Misiorowski/MIL— SSS be damned, he was evolving in real time during the playoffs. Actualizing on this rank has more built-in risk than I typically care for, but his arm is just anything but typical. The command has come along like I thought and I think that will continue. True ascent will need that, and a tick more refinement with the secondaries. He was getting much more comfortable with the curve in the playoffs. It’s a very necessary development, keeping guys from sitting on the velo and still being able hit a 94/95 mph slider, that they shouldn’t. I wouldn’t give up on his kick change, either. It wasn’t really there in the playoffs, but I saw some ultra nasty ones flash in the regular season. So much of the calculus comes down to one thing; get ahead with the FA and then it all plays so awesome.
Kyle Bradish/BAL— That was a very exciting flash last season coming off of surgery, and illustrates why it’s important to take those low cost/upside stabs. If that K rate is even 75% real, then I might be too low. The reasons it could be are a plenty good sinker and then an elite looking pair of breakers in his slider and curve. I just don’t see his true FA being all that strong of a pitch, but he can stand to chop that usage by 10%, at least. I can’t imagine why he wouldn’t.
Eury Perez/MIA— do not forget about his trajectory prior to blowing out, this is a rare arm that is still developing on the fly. There was far more to like about him then the crude stats suggest. His secondaries were so absurdly advanced, they just took some time to flash again. The curve was the main issue, but the pitch metrics lead me to believe he’ll find it—and that change up, too.
Blake Snell/LAD— Like you’d expect, there were some incredible flashes, but some wild lows, too. We know what he’s capable of, but I prefer being in this range and if he works up, so be it. The stuff remains elite and the command very difficult to trust.
Chase Burns/CIN— There is a lot to be excited about here. I am less concerned with heavy dual option forward guys when they have two elite options and flash enough of a third, esp when that third —the change—can neutralize opposite hand batters. His luck was absurd last season, with a .360 BABIP and 64% strand rate. The home park is zero fun, given his tendencies, but this is simply an arm that I want to sign up for.
Tatsuya Imai/FA— I feel good enough to deal with the unknown translations to land here, that is how generally impressed I am with his video. It’s a very good FA and what very well ought to be 2 plus secondaries in his killer split and unique slider. Landing spot and other factors have to be considered, but I am bullish.
Shane Bieber/TOR— My affinity for him is known and I really liked how he looked when he returned. It’s all there for him pitch well and move up from here. I was shocked he picked up his option, given the scouts were obviously seeing what I was, but it should work out just fine for him. Especially since he must have been happy there and he’s a relentless worker on his craft, as well as a command master.
George Kirby/SEA— I am fine in this area, he’s a good pitcher. He just tinkers so often that it makes it difficult to develop a true bead on IF he could turn into an ace. Looking at the road numbers and his answers for lefties, it makes me slightly pessimistic. The slider and FA should be a stout enough foundation, but he needs to go back to his old curve. The shoulder stuff seems to be too reoccurring to be just random, and while I never attempt to predict injuries, we have to weigh it in certain cases.
Framber Valdez/FA— it wasn’t a fun slog for awhile there, and you have to recognize that when it comes to him. It can be frustrating, but it’s an arm/pitch profile that is worth sticking with. His destination will matter a bit, but he’s always made it work in a pretty hitter friendly park. His road splits did suffer this year, but it seems less static compared to his career. The curve is absolutely critical to his upper end outcome.
Nick Pivetta/SD— I thought I was being fairly aggressive with his placement last year, and he cleared that bar by a bunch. He really looked the part and the home relocation made a measurable impact. Regression, in some variable form, lingers but with how he expanded his arsenal I am mostly willing to head down the path again.
Tyler Glasnow/LAD—This is higher than I figured I’d be. He simply never seems to provide the innings we need, even though they are very high quality ones. I noticed that he made some pretty significant mechanical changes when he came back, and they all make a lot of theoretical sense—as far as lessening the stress on his elbow. Those changes can take time, even for elite quality arms. I can see the command rebounding and maybe he adapts well to staring every 5 days.
Jesus Luzardo/PHI— The bounceback was tricky to spot coming into Spring, but the early part of the season it was fairly obvious. It went sideways for a bit, but the adjustments worked and seem legit enough to invest in for this year. The sweeper unlocked a much different ceiling, even if that really good FA seems to be a thing of the past.
Gavin Williams/CLE— Yeah, I am probably never going to give up on him. It was such an awesome finish to the season and that has to be a loud signal. Have to take whatever discount you can get and drive forward with the full on breakout.
Dylan Cease/TOR— We all know the stuff can dazzle, but the command was beyond scattershot and some of the worst I’ve watched, on many nights. He seems to have these every other year things happening, but I’ve never put much stock into that—and he was unlucky according to the metrics last year. He was especially poor away from Petco last year, so that has a slight factor here.
Michael King/FA— Ultimately I didn’t see a degradation in his stuff when he came back, it wasn’t sharp, but it’s easy enough to explain away. The shoulder stuff has to be a red flag and the destination may not be quite as friendly, so he lands in this territory until we get eyes on him in Spring Training. It’s a gamble, but it’s an arm I’ve always been fond of.
Sonny Gray/BOS— He can be a little up/down, but usually pitches easily into this level of SPs. I am not loving a multi year trend of declining velo, but he makes up for it with plenty of plus secondaries and highly advanced strike throwing. He’s been very strong in STL, but not so good on the road the past 2 years now. He syncs up strongly with how the BOS staff prefers to diminish the straight FA. The underlying peripherals suggest he deserved better numbers last year, so I can see a nice rebound.
Cam Schlittler/NYY— I get there is going to be a tax to be paid on him, given the late season run, but he looks worth betting on. A foundational pair of FAs and curve that showed traction. The LOB rate portends to a little good fortune, but I don’t see it being a problem. He can shave the BB rate a little and that’s really how he reaches this sort of ceiling territory. Reports of him working on a change or split in the offseason only add to the intrigue.
Ryan Pepiot/TB— I’ll sign up for a lot of Pep this year, the move back to the Trop will likely matter, even if he was quite effective at Yankee Stadium south. It’s a pretty solid sum of parts and he seems fully developed.
Pablo Lopez/MIN— Arm issues are not new territory with him, but he had been able to show a pretty good semblance of health prior to last season. All we know is that he is healthy heading into a normal offseason and a pretty decent bet to end up in a better situation.
Gerrit Cole/NYY— it all comes down to how long he’s delayed, but I am thinking if things continue to go well, he is about 2-3 weeks behind in Spring, setting up a return right about the beginning of May. Well worth taking in this range.
Mason Miller/SD— no, I do not have any idea if this is what happens, but looking at the state of the Pads rotation, what they gave up for him and his past experience, I am willing to speculate.
Brandon Woodruff/MIL— he could not have looked much better in his long, winding road back to action. It was a disappointing end, given the nature of the injury, but judging by the Brewers actions, I don’t think it will be an issue to start the season. It all adds up to this space of the ranks, with upside for more.
Cade Horton/CHC— The ERA was certainly fortunate. Overall I’ve never quite witnessed a full season like we saw on the north-side, with the wind perpetually seeming to blow in. It helped the entire staff, but I have no idea how to factor it for this season. Ultimately I think Horton, who missed a lot of development time the past couple years, will relocate the strikeout stuff that was always quite apparent coming up the ladder. That will mitigate some regression.
Trevor Rogers/BAL— I had faith that he was going to keep regression at bay for the stretch run last season, and it worked well. I am going to have to hedge a little bit when it comes to a full follow up season, though. He’s battled thru a lot, he could hardly do any exercise for a long stretch because of his back and his fitness really suffered. They have him on a much better program now. Both breakers could be utilized much more, the great change has returned and there was obviously a big bounce back for the FA. A mid 3.00s ERA type, with grounders and functional K’s seem like a prudent possibility.
Spencer Strider/ATL— This is a bet that he works and finds his way back in a little more consistent velo further away from the internal brace. That’s really all it comes down to. We won’t know anything concrete until Spring and even then it might be too inexact for many, given he was ripping 97-99 mph in North Port last March. At least we know it’s still there, which beats the alternative.
Shota Imanaga/CHC— I am sure this is low compared to a lot of spots, but I was just not all that impressed last year and almost all of the underlying metrics point towards some significant regression. Or maybe it was all about the hamstring. On the positive side, he displayed trademark command and the chase rate at least lends to the idea that the K rate can rebound.
Nick Lodolo/CIN— He was finally able to pitch okay in his small park home last year, and that helped a bunch. The metrics shot up across the map, but the K rate fell off a little, I think that will rebound given the growth in chase rate. It’s a really nice 4 pitch mix and a change up that neutralizes righty bats.
Emmet Sheehan/LAD— The metrics aren’t perfect, but they paint a pretty nice picture and portend a guy with a nice ceiling/floor combo. I am confident that his bat missing and K rate are just getting started, as they were borderline pornographic in the minors and the MLB swinging strike rate was clear. His movement profile is awesome, and I would not be surprised if he reverts back to the original sweeper instead of the modified curve this year. He has to be back here because of some unknowns when it comes to how the Dodgers decide to staff this rotation, but I believe he’s earned a spot.
Trey Yesavage/TOR— I’ve been a big backer since they drafted him, most evaluators were not giving him the appropriate credit for command gains, slider quality and just the overall unique viability of his mechanics/approach.
Bubba Chandler/PIT— This is probably playing it moderately safe. I think it’s a foundational type FA and some good breakers with a plus change. All the other factors, including his pedigree, set up for a solid gamble.
Drew Rasmussen/TB— For as much as I really like him, his fantasy value was muted by how they chose to handle him. I’d imagine that will be less strict this year and with the park shift, it should help deliver far more utility. Bat missing/K’s will need to perk up for that to actualize.
