As we embark on the ‘2nd Half’ of the MLB season I am focused on getting all of us in the very best position to take down our leagues. I am grateful for the opportunity to serve you guys with the very best ranks that I can. I am far less focused on expanding my reach than making sure the people that have supported me are satisfied with what they are getting, all the other stuff will take care of itself, so long as the process/work does what I believe it will.
I do want to cover one quick question I often receive…how do you build these every few weeks? It’s all 100% from scratch with zero copy/paste, outside of citing my last ranks to get there exact position. I utilize no models or projections, I have never really found them that predictive. The starting pitcher position just exists outside of that realm, in my opinion. It’s too volatile and way too messy. I rely on watching them throw and cross checking the individual pitch metrics, while weighing several other factors like present command and team context. It’s served me well and that’s how it will stay. I do value and read people like Eno Sarris for stuff grades and Lance Brozdowski for his impeccable scouting reports, but outside of that I am completely on my own.
With that out of the way, welcome to this edition of The Arms Index. This is how I foresee SPs stacking up for the next 4 weeks, with an emphasis on the rest of the season. I’ve seamed in some IL guys, but only if they are feeling really close. It’s done through a points league lens, but should be broadly applied for all formats of play. I aim to cut out the noise and provide actionable ranks for your leagues. Compare this to other places and take note of my outliers!
Please consider becoming a paid subscriber for additional content and the chat feature. Almost 8 thousand words of analysis follows, including a ranked top 30 IL stash list.
*LR*=Last Rank from master list, SL=stash list
Tarik Skubal/DET (LR #1)— still the front man of the aces.
Paul Skenes/PIT (LR #2)— everything points to a finish like last year.
Garrett Crochet/BOS (LR #3)— innings aren’t a concern, yet.
Zach Wheeler/PHI (LR #5)— rock solid undersells him.
Logan Webb/SF (LR #4)— a little variance lately, perfect floor/ceiling combo ROS.
Jacob deGrom/TEX (LR #12)— just continues to churn good-to-great starts and the stuff displayed is gaining as he goes.
Max Fried/NYY (LR #6)— performance has been a little off, the re-occurrence of blisters is an possible issue, as he’s spent time on the IL regularly over the past several seasons with them.
Bryan Woo/SEA (LR #16)— the past calendar year simply can not look much better, these guys all have risks, but we want exactly what he brings.
Logan Gilbert/SEA (LR #7)— I expect a flourish to the finish with him.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto/LAD (LR #10)— the overall upside outweighs any slight risks in the profile. It’ll never be perfect with him because of the HRs, but he should prove steady enough in this landscape.
Hunter Brown/HOU (LR #8)— I am not seeing anything that warrants concern, the diesel summer should proceed.
Framber Valdez/HOU (LR #15)— the walks feel a tick fluky and under the hood looks plenty strong for a continued high level success for the pending free agent.
Joe Ryan/MIN (LR #13)— so steady and I still believe the K’s will uptick.
Spencer Strider/ATL (LR #14)— the ceiling will likely continue to be compromised a little, unless the velo comes all the way back. This is still a great outcome and there is plenty of upside should things break right.
Robbie Ray/SF (LR #17)— appears to be gaining strength and his combination of innings, K’s and strong home digs are very hard to beat.
Freddy Peralta/MIL (LR #24)— the velo has been much steadier and he has no issue mixing and matching the 3 other good secondaries, depending on the day. Efficiency will remain a risk, so odds are against starts deeper than 6—maybe 7 innings, which removes him from ace upside for me. That is more semantics though, and he’s answering the bell for the team and delivering great results.
Cristopher Sanchez/PHI (LR #22)— we are back to seeing the upside with an unbelievably sturdy floor, a combo that is tough to beat.
George Kirby/SEA (LR #19)— the stuff is all there and we lean on track record.
Jacob Misiorowski/MIL (LR #38)— the innings will be an issue, there is almost no way around that. The pure upside on a per start basis should be nearly in that sub-elite category. He’s repeating his mechanics well and that buoys the command to an acceptable level. I also believe the change ends up being a solid pivot pitch for him. He’s earning some leash from the manager, too. It’s all looking very positive, just have to wait and see when they take their foot off the pedal.
Shota Imanaga/CHC (LR SL)— look, he can continue to defy the odds of regression, he did it for quite awhile last year. His arm is pretty fresh at the moment, but I still think he makes for a better sell high in our game.
Sonny Gray/STL (LR #25)— bat missing seems to be percolating and the command is sharpening. He still always has health risks, esp at his age, but it all just looks really good right now.
Tyler Glasnow/LAD (LR SL)— the stuff was quite impressive in his return, he’s always going to be really good when available. The command wasn’t as sharp, but it’s easy to explain away.
MacKenzie Gore/WAS (LR #18)— sort of unfair to drop him, but it’s a convergence of factors. A rolling velo decrease chief among them, but also some yellow flashing command indicators. This team has little to play for and it really shows. His strikeouts keep him in this territory and I expect them to re-surge.
Carlos Rodon/NYY (LR #21)— given some of the recent turns, he might make for a shrewd target. I like him to be a difference maker (again) in the 2nd half.
Nick Pivetta/SD (LR #23)— he’s made so well on my aggressive ranks and the cutter has been a crucial addition to the arsenal. He always has maintained a lower babip, but this .259 is pretty damn low and the career best 78% LOB also sticks out. I still don’t think he’s a classic sell high, mostly due to relativity.
Nathan Eovaldi/TEX (LR SL)— another one where we simply have to hold as most people are not going to pay for what he actually brings to the table with the risks associated. His velo still concerns the hell out of me, but he mitigates is so well with pitchability and insanely good secondaries.
Dylan Cease/SD (LR #20)— he’s getting exhausting, but there are optimistic reasons to believe the command somehow rounds back into form.
Jack Flaherty/DET (LR #31)— there is just too much I like about the situation with him, he’s one of my top reasonable buys for the stretch run.
Kodai Senga/NYM (LR SL)— I’ve always been aggressively high with him and think he was trending towards top 20 status prior to the fluke leg injury.
Eury Perez/MIA (LR #43)— patience is paying off with the dynamic young arm, there are complicating factors when it comes to how much they decide to push him, but he’s really come around with the command lately. He holds a high per start ceiling and very workable floor.
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