It’s been quite the month since the last update, and it feels like the landscape is more difficult than ever. We have a ton of studs putting up duds, new guys emerging and both injured guys returning and also rookies taking on major roles. It’s a ton to try and decipher, but I’ll do my level best to get us in position to take down our leagues. This will be it for the rest of the regular season, I thank all of you that came along on this journey with me. The content faucet will remain open during the Oct, Nov and Dec months, focusing on free agent movement, ranks risers/fallers and dynasty/prospect stuff. There really is no off-season for many of us that live and breathe baseball. I hope it is enough to keep the momentum and put us on a great trajectory for 2026. I am using the revenue brought in to upgrade my office computer and get all the tech I need to begin webcasting short videos here. I feel like it can help connect me better with my audience and grow as a figure in this industry. I will also be appearing on other platforms and podcasts throughout the off-season, so lots of stuff is in the works! It would not be possible without the support from you guys.
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You guys know the deal here, so I present The Arms Index ROS.
*LR*=Last Rank from master list, *SL*=Stash List
Tarik Skubal (LR #1)— the stuff has slightly receded, but he remains the best bet for innings, K’s and wins in that division with a good backing team.
Paul Skenes (LR #2)— almost a co-number one, just churns out high quality outing when not tasked with facing the Brewers.
Garrett Crochet (LR #3)— should be good to go for a strong finish.
Bryan Woo (LR #8)— The floor/ceiling combo remains elite.
Hunter Greener (LR SL)— stuff all looks totally back. LFG.
Logan Webb (LR #5)— it hasn’t been totally terrific, but I feel like it’s more variance and just an awful team context dragging him down a little.
Framber Valdez (LR #12)— not perfect here either, but I believe we’ll still see a very strong finish for him.
Cristopher Sanchez (LR #17)— just pitching great.
Hunter Brown (LR #11)— he’s gotta dial in the breakers better because it puts stress on his foundation.
Joe Ryan (LR #13)— steady with a sneaky ceiling yet.
Freddy Peralta (LR #16)— he’s still unable to truly find a high level of efficiency, but does everything else we could ask for in a SP1 type.
Logan Gilbert (LR #9)— one off inning completely zaps his overall utility lately, it’s highly frustrating, but the stuff is pure and so is the situation.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LR #10)— he’s been very good, I just see him getting to some uncharted innings territory and the six man rotation means one start a week, that really needs to count.
Robbie Ray (LR #15)— finding a floor level that hasn’t been seen in awhile.
George Kirby (LR #18)— just when we get comfortable, right? One bad turn can’t undo the mostly high end work, just have to believe it’s a blip.
Blake Snell (LR SL)— he’s been looking improved with his general command and we know the K’s will show up. Can there be enough efficiency to locate the ceiling is the question. He’s well worth the risk here.
Tyler Glasnow (LR #22)— the overhauled mechanics have made a difference and hopefully will also help the elbow stress.
Shota Imanaga (LR #20)— he has not fallen off like I predicted, the K’s are really doing the work to keep regression at bay.
Max Fried (LR #7)— just a slog lately and the defense hasn’t helped, I still see the stuff working and the Yanks finding a way to correct things.
Nick Pivetta (LR #25)— he keeps firing off mostly high quality turns and it’s a level of floor/ceiling combo we really haven’t seen from him.
Chris Sale (LR SL)— there are going to be some bold placements that are uncomfortable, that is just the nature of this time of the season. I think he looks good on rehab and won’t face any restrictions ROS. It’s top 5 upside.
Jacob deGrom (LR #6)— a slight misstep on the west coast trip, but largely good results and great looking stuff. It’s more a matter of these controlled innings and now a possible shoulder issue. It could be nothing, but it has to be weighed.
Brandon Woodruff (LR #37)— last months aggression proves well founded and he’s dominating with a FA that is still missing several MPH. It’s not a surprise because the shape and command is so strong. As I warned, HR’s will remain part of the profile. The change up is flashing really well, and that will help. Regression is still somewhat likely, but with this team context, it may not matter.
Nathan Eovaldi (LR #26)— the breakers and command are just so elite that he can mostly shove his way through any lineup.
Carlos Rodon (LR #24)— command has been flashing some yellow indicators, and I am a tick concerned about some of these AL East matchups remaining. Track record and stuff lead us back here.
Trevor Rogers (LR #76)— simply wild how consistently great he’s been. It’s never sustainable, until it is. The babip can’t remain .214 with an 85% strand rate, but that doesn’t mean he can’t keep it at bay for another month. His game plan execution and command have been flawless.
Shane Bieber (LR SL)— the breakers on rehab look vintage good and the command has as well. The FA is parking back in a velo band when he was he was a CY candidate, too. It bodes well enough for me to project instant impact.
Sonny Gray (LR #21)— the babip gods have been unkind, but he can deal with spats of that. I still think there is plenty in the tank for a good close.
Jack Flaherty (LR #28)— just a total roller coaster lately, but I see enough good to outweigh some of the bad with his plus team context.
Eury Perez (LR #30)— I don’t see any point in shutting him down, he needs the development. They also might just tighten up the pitch counts, regardless it’s the sort of per start upside we want.
Jacob Misiorowski (LR #19)— innings concerns remain on the brain, but I am not seeing anything that the Brewers can’t correct with his mechanics.
Michael King (LR SL)— It’s far from ideal, given he was ramping up too quickly from the shoulder, but it sounds mostly minor and he should be a major impact pitcher for 5 weeks.
Merrill Kelly (LR #31)— A trade to pitcher friendly TEX was a small boost. He’s a fine option for the ROS with the improved team context.
Dylan Cease (LR #27)— I still believe he’s worth running out there, despite a total lack of command in the zone (or otherwise). His upside is still really good, but the floor is equally troublesome at this time of the season.
David Peterson (LR #35)— he hasn’t made the most from a favorable schedule draw lately, but there is still enough here that he can be a useful floor/ceiling guy going for the ROS. It really hasn’t been all that bad, either. Just look at the past calendar year for him, it’s pretty awesome.
Ryan Pepiot (LR #33)— The floor has been generally sturdy, just needs to dial in the sequencing for the latter stages of games.
Nolan McLean (LR #90s)— there is plenty to be excited about with him. An unreal athlete with a buttery smooth delivery, the command will end up more than fine. The control is a slightly different matter in the near term. Regardless, we plunk down with these sort of upside arms and go start-to-start.
Andrew Abbott (LR #42)— a mini two start blip seems to be corrected, even if that Sun start came against a totally gassed MIL team. The command gains look static enough and he knows how to collect just enough K’s.
Spencer Strider (LR #14)— it’s been basically a disaster, ever since that race-track game he got up for and then didn’t pitch in. It’s hard to expect his FA to be turned around with 6 weeks left. The slider is still close to elite and both the change and curve flash plenty. I am benching him until we get some actual results for him to build on. If they had any sense in ATL they would skip his next turn against a Mets team he struggles with and allow a mini reset.
Matthew Boyd (LR #34)— I happened to catch his complete command meltdown against the Brewers in MIL, but it seems like it was just an off day. I do have some concerns about him getting gassed with the innings jump, though.
Edward Cabrera (LR #80)— We’ve never really had flashes that have stretched out this long with him, especially with tangible changes showing. I still have a hard time trusting him, but he’s earned his way up. I can deal with some babip variance because the bat missing is plenty present.
Ranger Suarez (LR #36)— heck of a good rebound after some rough patches, but ultimately I am seeing too much stuff fluctuations to be super confident.
Kodai Senga (LR #29)— His command could return at any moment, but it simply has not been good enough and it is mitigating any shot at the upside he has.
MacKenzie Gore (LR #23)— apparently his fall was warranted, and not by quite enough. I still see a good shot that emerges from this as a better pitcher. Schedule will make it a challenge, though.
Nick Lodolo (LR #47)— the big lefty was headed towards top 20 status before the blister (repeat occurrence) derailed him. Bat missing was percolating, as I expected, and the command was so sharp. I think he can still do some very good things yet, should the issue clear up for him.
Max Scherzer (LR #89)— it was never about the eroding talent, he still showed plenty, I just didn’t think he’d find a way outta that thumb issue. He has, and with massive showings against a very difficult schedule. Ride it until the wheels fly off, there is simply no reason not to.
Jesus Luzardo (LR #41)— he seems to be settling in as high ceiling/low floor option, but with indicators he might be finding slightly more consistency.
Sean Manaea (LR #38)— not sure why he’s decided to be a 2 pitch guy all of a sudden, maybe it’s just a temporary measure while he collects his feel and hones the command. His FA rebounded last turn, so that will hopefully matter.
Drew Rasmussen (LR #55)— not sure how much they let him go into Sept, but his innings should be well within the parameter range set. He’s been very free and easy on the mound and delivering great results.
Shohei Ohtani (LR #32)— it is so damn tough with him, the stuff is elite/elite, and maybe they remove the reigns some, but I tend to doubt it, with so much at stake being tied to his bat.
Lucas Giolito (LR #43)— I pushed him up pretty high last time and he’s generally delivered. The team context and stuff should allow for a good finish.
Gavin Williams (LR #69)— I am not truly sure of anything when it comes to him, I just know he’s worth rolling out at the moment, and should it truly all come together, than he’s a top 25 type for the ROS.
Casey Mize (LR #45)— He simply does not move in my ranks much, I like him and think he’s growing into dependability, and I like that sort of ability.
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