The Arms Index
March TOP 200 SP Ranks
I am going to disregard an even larger chunk of general results this Spring, a good analyst should be doing this anyways, but it seems even more prudent this year. We have a substantial subset of players really far along in their progressions, wind/weather messing around with pitch shapes, possible calibration issues with the tech, guys just working on things that are very unlikely to ‘head north’ and now an even further diluted competition base with the WBC impacting the quality of lineups. Good stuff can/will emerge from ST—sticky things that impact pitcher and player performance. We just need to be careful with the sweeping conclusions we take from it.
Which is why it’s a good thing that I do this analysis year round, and have a massive platform base to draw on. I think my insights are well informed, so much of what we are seeing is extremely analytics forward, which is totally fine, I love them and use them plenty. It’s how to practically apply them best for our purposes, knowing how to drill down to what can allow for the greatest rates of actual performance tilt. The other part of the equation is actually watching these guys—the time factor is pretty massive—and so undervalued these days. My rankings updates take, on average, about 30 hours of total time. That’s not including all video and pitch cross referencing/charts that are done in between to hone what I’m catching. I love doing it, it’s a great passion for me. It’s made a major impact in my game play, and has received great feedback from the people I’ve tried to help with these lists and my general analysis for a decade.
The bar always remains high here. I am certainly not a savant, getting here has taken a ton of trial and error to get a system aligned. It’s also taken a lot of time, that is the biggest separator, and the one thing that simply can’t be faked. We all want ways to beat the house, or at least give us that extra edge. I fully believe I can do that for my readers. None of this is perfect, I don’t chase that, it’s an impossibility. We play a numbers game based around humans playing another game. Through my process, allow me to save you time and tilt the numbers in your favor. I think the value will continue to show up, and I will not be outworked in proving that.
To be clear, I don’t view any other ranks. I used to a little, but prefer to be certain I am not letting anyone have sway over what I view as proprietary. I still read Eno and his stuff metrics, along with some analysis, but no longer the ranks. I love Lance Brozdowski’s work and continue to correspond with him about pitchers. Otherwise outside of some great follows on X and core reads, I don’t take in all that much. It’s just how my work in this space has evolved and I think it’s optimal that way. My Arms Index is the blueprint and basically a living organism, it’s not meant to be followed blindly. It’s adaptable for all sorts of builds and directed towards the league sharps. Take note of the outliers, the difference in those margins have paid off in significantly over the years. I also want to note, I am not going anywhere, my stuff will remain solely here for the long haul. Stick with me, it’s just beginning.
Make no mistake, carnage is coming for a decent percentage of these guys. There is no way around the attrition we deal with at the SP spot. Some guys create the illusion of safety, but we just can’t predict what happens when these guys throw baseballs unnaturally hard—with inconceivable spin. It’s even trickier this year with the early ramp up and some guys seeing more pressure simulation possibilities via the WBC. Inviting the trouble of already injured guys needs to come at reasonable discount, we will find our way into enough trouble. There’s no point in sulking when it does happen, we stack our bench, locate pivots before others catch wind and ride on. It’s the name of the game.
As always, these are slightly more points league forward, where pitchers tend to score better, but are meant to be broadly applied to the entire spectrum of fantasy play styles. It’s a snapshot of how I view things and envision where performances are heading. It’s a season long list that skews harder for the weeks ahead and winning now. I don’t follow projections as I simply don’t find them all that predictive. Being proactive is the goal. Unless I spot major issues or degradation of stuff, I will stick to my evals and let the variance play out. I am a flexible evaluator, but patience is a required virtue for this game. I will update again in a few weeks—as I am heading down to FL to hit as many Spring games as I can. I will do my best to get some good pics/video and try to get up a couple posts for my Index Impacts when major news and inevitable shifts occur. Always feel free to ask me questions!
Thanks for indulging the long cold open, here we go:
*LR* denotes last rank in the Index
Paul Skenes/PIT (LR #1)
Tarik Skubal/DET (LR #3)
Garrett Crochet/BOS (LR #2)
Nothing has dissuaded me from the big three, and in any particular order. I just see less possible turbulence for Skubal with the contract stuff behind him and a DET team that should play good ball all season, hence the small skip above Crochet.
Bryan Woo/SEA (LR #5)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto/LAD (LR #6)
Cristopher Sanchez/PHI (LR #7)
Hunter Brown/HOU (LR #8)
Chris Sale/ATL (LR #9)
Logan Gilbert/SEA (LR #10)
Max Fried/NYY (LR #11)
Cole Ragans/KC (LR #12)
Everything stays the same and these guys all move up a chair. I am bummed about Greene, but until we learn more, he has to plummet down. Woo has had plenty of arm issues himself and isn’t a beacon of safety, but his body of work is so high floor/high ceiling that he sits atop. These are the more realistic (for our drafts) #1 starters that really help a build, but I like to play more dangerously and see if any fall.
Logan Webb/SF (LR #13)
Jacob deGrom/TEX (LR #14)
Kyle Bradish/BAL (LR #15)
Freddy Peralta/NYM (LR #16)
Eury Perez/MIA (LR #17)
Nolan McLean/NYM (LR #19)
Shohei Ohtani/LAD (LR #21)
Jacob Misiorowski/MIL (LR #22)
Chase Burns/CIN (LR #22)
Framber Valdez/DET (LR #23)
Tyler Glasnow/LAD (LR #28)
George Kirby/SEA (LR #24)
Dylan Cease/TOR (LR #25)
There’s not a ton of shakeup in T3 and it remains a great place to shop for our purposes. Take advantage in the early/mid RDs to those that drop a little. I did follow through with a bump to Glasnow, mostly due to a developing faith that they’ve figured out the mechanics for him. A lot of these arms will tilt us with their per start capabilities, but also need proper veteran reinforcement for crude innings in our builds. It was only a quick peek, but the Miz has clearly been in the lab. I saw interesting usage/shape with the slider and curve. I think the curve might be the key, just like it was in the playoffs, but the slider showed better action at a lower velocity. It’s still going to take faith that the command keeps making progress and the mechanics stay online, but it’s the sort of upside that is practically unrivaled. Which is much the same story with Burns, as far as the upside. They both need more reliability from 3rd/4th offerings, but it’s close enough to assume growth there.
Joe Ryan/MIN (LR #18)
Jesus Luzardo/PHI (LR #26)
Nick Pivetta/SD (LR #27)
Gavin Williams/CLE (LR #31)
Michael King/SD (LR #32)
Sonny Gray/BOS (LR #33)
Edward Cabrera/CHC (LR #45)
Trey Yesavage/TOR (LR #34)
Nathan Eovaldi/TEX (LR #40)
Tatsuya Imai/HOU (LR #30)
Brandon Woodruff/MIL (LR #35)
Cam Schlittler/NYY (LR #37)
I am not hearing enough to fully disengage from Joe Ryan, there are added risks with him now, but he remains at the front of Tier 4. The clear big shift is E-Cab running up. I’ll never be at ease with him, but his stuff is looking really pure and all the peripheral elements have improved for him. He just needs to stay away from the poor FA/sinker sequencing and maintain the command gains. We are going to remain in the dark on Yesavage and Schlittler for a little while yet, but draw on the extremely positive things we saw over the sample last year. They will likely only keep dropping in drafts until live bullets begin shortly. I am not going to blow smoke, it’s really tough to get a handle on Imai after one very quick look and then a tidy 3 innings. I hope that it’s a purposeful ramp up and the fluffy reports from teammates taking BP against him are accurate. Unlike a younger Roki last year, he has what I think is a legitimate (and unique) breaking pitch and better command to fallback on. I suspect he’s also holding the split back right now and it has a chance to be a major K weapon. It’s still a risk with him until we see more and hopefully slightly better looking pitch metrics. I trust HOU for optimization and think this risk has enough reward, especially given the cost I am seeing. Speaking of risks, Woody is definitely that, but there’s been no actual back chatter that he’s dealing with anything. The Brewers are smart, they are taking it extremely slow with their arms after a long season. The expectation I am hearing is that his shoulder will be healthier and stronger further removed from the surgery. We can’t be gullible, but it theoretically makes sense. We at least know he can be very good in this incarnation and has maintained pinpoint command. There could be some hidden upside with a sturdy floor, it’s a nice combo.
Shota Imanaga/CHC (LR #42)
Blake Snell/LAD (LR #29)
Zach Wheeler/PHI (LR #54)
Nick Lodolo/CIN (LR #43)
Ryan Pepiot/TB (LR #39)
Cade Horton/CHC (LR #50)
Trevor Rogers/BAL (LR #42)
Emmet Sheehan/LAD (LR #44)
Bubba Chandler/PIT (LR #39)
Kevin Gausman/TOR (LR #46)
MacKenzie Gore/TEX (LR #47)
Shane McClanahan/TB (LR #59)
Drew Rasmussen/TB (LR #48)
Ranger Suarez/BOS (LR #52)
Tier 5 is a great sweet spot and dovetails a little bit better to T6 than T4. I’ve seen enough from Shota in ST to believe last years K rate was more of an outlier and he’s setting up to be a serious value. Snell is impossible enough as is, but I really don’t like dealing with shoulder stuff in my SPs and he needs to fall further for me to invest. The reports indicate Wheeler is a little ahead of schedule, he’s too good to pass up, despite the obvious pitfalls. Lodolo and Horton both look totally ready to build off their breakthroughs of last year. The regression for Rogers always has to be the first citation, but it doesn’t appear to be any true barrier for rock solid value. I am not breaking any news, but there could be more command turbulence for Bubba than what appeared in the MLB sample. I am hoping it’s some minor mechanical stuff that is being ironed out in ST right now, as I’ve noticed a little overthrowing and poor finishing on tape. Gore is showing mostly well in his new digs, nothing we haven’t seen before, so it’s just discovering better (actual) sustainability for the long haul for him. I thought McClanahan was impressive, given all the circumstances. He’s well worth the risk to see how this shakes out, I don’t see any obvious reasons why the velo doesn’t come close to all the way back, but even at 94/95 he has the shape and deception—plus the secondaries to find success. Tampa arms, back at the Trop, are great bets. Rasmussen seems poised to break the team imposed shackles this year. Ranger looked a lot better his last turn, with stuff returning to usual levels.
