Welcome to the mid/late June update to The Arms Index! We are really into the thick of the season now and have plenty of data to digest. We can see how regression should track, in both directions, and place our bets on who can best the averages. We also (think) we know two other important things; 1) the ball is looking quite favorable to the pitchers, it’s the seams and we are seeing extra drag on the baseball and 2) it hasn’t slowed down the injuries and attrition is kicking quite hard at the position. We can find pivots and that is why you are here.
As always, this attempts to rank MLB starting pitchers moving forward (to the AS Break). Being an index, I try to take account for everything that is happening right now. It just can’t be a list of guys that have performed well thus far. That is certainly part of the calculus, as is a players track record, along with the stuff I am seeing—both through my video looks and by cross referencing individual pitch metrics from their arsenal. It’s all done through a points league lens, but should be broadly applied for all formats of play. I aim to cut out the noise and provide actionable ranks for your leagues. Compare this to other places and take note of my outliers!
I will be around for the next 10 days to handle all questions, after that I will be on hiatus for a week to celebrate my favorite holiday—the 4th of July! I head to the Northwoods of Wisconsin with lifelong friends and I am more or less ‘off the grid’ so I will do my absolute best to make sure everyone is prepared right up to that point. This is simply a monster of an update, so take your time and let it marinate. I’ve gone really in depth with the tier placement and now feature writeups for the must read top 30+ IL stash list that follows the Top 150!
Please consider becoming a paid subscriber for additional content and the chat feature. Over 7 thousand words of pure analysis follows, here we go!
*LR*=Last Rank from master list, SL=stash list
Tarik Skubal (LR #1)— he’s the best going.
Paul Skenes (LR #2)— I get the support is massively annoying, but eventually they will score a little for his starts.
Garrett Crochet (LR #3)— keep rolling big fella.
Logan Webb (LR #7)— he’s found another gear.
Zach Wheeler (LR #4)— the stuff and craft combo.
Max Fried (LR #5)— proving himself among the elites.
Logan Gilbert (LR SL)— I saw what I needed.
Hunter Brown (LR #10)— summer of Diesel.
Spencer Schwellenbach (LR #17)— The whole package is different when he’s gaining extension and sitting 98 mph. The split is also trending favorably. All the secondaries can flash and keep teams guessing.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LR #6)— I think it’s a little variance, but the HRs do continue to be apart of the package. I also am beginning to factor in the Dodger arm attrition and a likely 6 man, at some point.
Chris Sale (LR #11)— everything rebounded like I thought. Still have to assume some added risk with him from a health vantage.
Jacob deGrom (LR #8)— also obvious elevated risks with him.
Joe Ryan (LR #13)— displaying a solid floor and he’s going to sprinkle in double digit Ks plenty yet.
Spencer Strider (LR #20)— one of the more difficult ranks. I said we had to give him another 4 starts last time, well, we are 3 down and we’ve finally witnessed a higher peak with the FA. The slider was the true star last outing, too. Also up in velo. The command was really strong. I do tend to believe these will be static, but #14 is sort of a hedge. It’s likely top 5 upside and I need to recognize that. We should know about all we need to with the Mets (a team he has a 5.58 career ERA against) back-to-back and the Phillies to follow.
Framber Valdez (LR #22)— back to dominance and definitely not a surprise. When he’s running hot, this is how it can look, and for long stretches.
Bryan Woo (LR #14)— I am a sucker for the floor, but the lack of secondaries have to leave him in this area, and that is still a great outcome.
Robbie Ray (LR #21)— he’s working mostly deeper and doing his usual K work. The change up has transformed him in the same way it did for Rodon.
MacKenzie Gore (LR #26)— on the precipice of putting it all together, the stuff has been excellent and command has developed. Now the consistency has to remain and he can conceivably lead the circuit in strikeouts.
George Kirby (LR #25)— have to understand he’s still early in his arm progression, the K boost would really bump the ceiling, but I am still thinking 1/IP is the expectation. Stuff looks really good.
Dylan Cease (LR #23)— I think he’ll remain an enigma, the command is simply not ideal. At least his misses are coming just off the edges now, and not in the middle. I also think he’s among the most likely to toss a no-hitter.
Carlos Rodon (LR #28)— some slight command variance the past few turns, still plenty of whiffs. He’s just really good, and has been for a full season now.
Cristopher Sanchez (LR #18)— his stuff hasn’t been as crisp lately, so that affects the ceiling a little, but the floor should remain strong.
Nick Pivetta (LR #31)— I like the new cutter and it slots into a needed velo band, it could unlock a little extra. He’s capable of giving back, so it’s not the ideal floor, but it’s tough to quibble with what he’s put on video/paper.
Freddy Peralta (LR #24)— the roller coaster has been climbing on the high side for a little bit with slightly improved efficiency. The K’s have been a little off this year, though. I simply expect inconsistency with him.
Sonny Gray (LR #30)— he’s been very good and the bat missing has perked up. I expect that to continue as his .322 babip normalizes.
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