The Look Ahead

News, Notes and what's Next

With the Dog Days rapidly approaching, I am checking out some recent performances and other news dropping that will affect how I attempt to gauge the rest of season (ROS) outlook and ranks for starting pitchers. This is ahead of a big mid June update of The Arm Index, which will take us up to the AS Break and will be out later next week! Attrition to the position is relentless right now, so we must continue to unearth the next wave, churn/burn and be precisely proactive about our moves.

Jacob Misiorowski/MIL— lets start with a bang this week. The Brewers are calling up the electric armed prospect for his MLB debut tomorrow. I had a suspicion he was forcing it and included him in last month’s update. He then had a few slight bumps, but the MIL brass is not letting that mar his overall fine development this season. Most of the time having the major league instruction staff get their hands on a talent like this is beneficial—esp when it’s the Brewers. Letting him work thru some recent turbulence also should be useful. People that have read my stuff for awhile know my feeling in regards to ‘The Miz’. I was practically alone on an island in expecting him to find traction as a starter, which is more of an indictment on the haste of current analysts, but I do understand some of the push back when it comes to the command. This situation has plenty of trappings and scenarios to go sideways, there is no denying that. He also can theoretically really help us, with burst starts and monster K totals. We always take a shot with these arm types and see how it shakes out. He is a legit mutant when it comes to his release extension, flat angle approach and gnarly breakers—also now getting comfortable with a new change up.

Jose Soriano/LAA— my goodness that was something, finally showing why I was pretty aggressive in my placement of him. As I said in last week’s column, I was getting ready to take the L, but he then shows exactly why we seek these arms! As I’ve preached from the jump, this is not your ordinary 26 yr old arm. He’s had to be developed basically in the bigs (due to big injury gaps) and Rule 5 status. He’s had 23 IP above A ball in his career, those coming in 2023 while rehabbing at AA. He’s now up to 34 total starts at the MLB level (all in the past 2 seasons). I don’t think he’s suddenly figured it out, fwiw. But he’s gaining confidence and that can only help. We know the stuff is absurdly good, he just fights his command sometimes —all stemming from mechanical stuff—which I picked up immediately on video a few starts into this year. Things have looked better lately, but I still simply don’t trust the Angels to optimize the incredible raw materials here. It’s going to be generally on him to work through, but he has all the right demeanor in the bump. His sinker is so nasty, but it’s subject to babip inconsistencies from turn-to-turn, the k-curve is a monster and so difficult to square for hitters. There are also solid signals from both the split and the slider, too. He just needs to continue sharpening them and it’s encouraging that he’s using them more and scaling back off the 4 seam this year. At the Yanks and home versus HOU are on tap, it will scare a lot of folks off, so use it to your advantage.

Shane Baz/TB— he’s coming with better attack plans lately, shelving the poor slider and dialing in the 3 strong weapons he wields. Even with the home park factors the HRs allowed should continue to regress, he’s much improved with his ground ball rates and the Pull Air % are showing well. I wish he had a cutter, but he can continue progressing with his command and make this mix work.

Logan Gilbert/SEA— he looks fully ready to return and he’ll immediately slot into the top 7 (or so) SPs in baseball for me. There is always risks, but he’s one to target if his owner wants out for some reason.

Andrew Abbott/CIN— I told you he was going to really jump in the ranks, but man, he is on a roll right now. Is this sustainable? Not remotely imo, but it doesn’t change the fact that his stuff continues to tick up and the command has really dialed in. K’s are up and BB’s are down. He’s also a pretty extreme flyball guy in a terrible home park that is just starting to heat up for the summer. His groundball rate is still unstable, but it’s down 5% from last year. The .227 BABIP isn’t crazy, but it will rise, and so will that nearly 90% strand rate. He’s just a pretty good pitcher that can work around these factors and be an asset.

Sandy Alacantara/MIA— I see mostly some variance swings in his favor right now, and he was absolutely due! Matchups have no doubt aided things, plus 6 days of rest. He was never going to be 7 ERA bad, it’s not possible with his stuff and track record. He’s back to flirting with the mid 40s space of the ranks, though. Command is key and we are not out of the woods there.

Sawyer Gipson-Long/DET— I don’t mind DET getting a little creative, esp as he syncs up his command and stuff. That was a very rock solid look at his potential last night. He zoned up super well and his 5 pitch mix features good stuff that will work, esp considering factors like the backing defense, home park and division. He’s more of an east/west mover and I’d like to see something work a little more vertical with drop/fade, but the change is close. He’s reworked the slider and that isn’t generating the old drop, it’s firmer and generating good whiff, but I am a little skeptical that it’s improved. He’s trending like a must grab, still.

Mick Abel/PHI— we are seeing the league make adjustments and he must now do the same. Nola is providing a long look for him to do that. I am still concerned about the command, but his arm is worth gambling on.

Noah Cameron/KC— the results finally normalized, to the surprise of no one. I actually thought it was a pretty decent start, all things considered. He was able to produce some whiff and K’s in a difficult assignment. FA perked up and sat 93 mph and that is a big deal. He worked the upper quadrant very well, but was just misfiring underneath the zone too often. He wasn’t that far off, at least. I don’t know the plan here for KC, will they stick with the 6 man until the break? At TEX (despite them finally starting to come out of a terribly long slump) will play, then home against Tampa lines up. Don’t overreact, he can still be a solid backend asset for the near term.

Slade Cecconi/CLE— I still think this could end up working. He’s not going to be a huge difference maker for us, but with attrition bucking, he isn’t the worst way to fill out the back of our staffs right now. He’s better than Logan Allen and Biebs is now a question mark. I don’t see anyone threatening his ability to take turns, but keep an eye on both Joey Cantillo—as he gets stretched in AAA, and especially Parker Messick—who has found another gear with bat missing and has legit prospect pedigree. Slade gets two turns next week, both on the west coast in SF and Sac-Town. That has just enough appeal to roster him for the week.

Merrill Kelly/ARI— my guy just keeps on shoving and it’s awesome. The command is bordering on artisan levels and the mix can keep teams from guessing. This can all work just fine and the floor has really stabilized.

Bryce Miller/SEA— I told you he was hurting early on, it was so obvious and he was trying to gut through it for the team. I don’t believe this latest injection is going to solve anything here and he should just get the chip(s) out of the damn elbow. If you have a free IL slot (who actually does!) then yeah, stash and hope…but I’ve seen this movie too many times.

Emmet Sheehan/LAD— now is the time to add. He might only be one more AAA start from activation, according to Roberts. I think they are rushing him, but we bet on these arms talents and the situation has to be considered plus—despite the roadside littered with can’t miss Dodger arms.

Luis Morales/ATH— getting real soon with him, as well. They don’t need to waste his bullets in the PCL and the stuff is looking great.

Cade Cavalli/WAS— I also can’t imagine he’s far from making his return to the majors. He’s close to stretched and the Nats can easily make the necessary room for him. They might opt to wait until the break, but it could also be in the next week or so. The big power righty has a lot of the traits we seek and the command is showing signs of turning the corner in AAA. It’s not a run situation, but his potential with get him into the 80s area of the ranks update.

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Anyone else you’d like covered, simply ask away in the comments or the paid subscriber chat and I will give you my best! Happy early Father’s Day to all my readers that it applies to! I’ll be celebrating by watching all the ball I can and getting lined up for the ranks update next week. Take care all!