The Look Ahead

Special *Miz* Edition

Had to get up a dedicated Jacob Misiorowski post, as I was able to move around my Wednesday schedule and get a live look at one of the premiere pitching matchups of the season—right in my backyard. The Mizinator did not disappoint!

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My readers know that I resisted the noise when it came to projecting his future role, despite almost every major evaluator in the industry determining that his command would amount to a late inning relief role. I’ve seen Misiorowski live a few times over the years and watched his evolution from arms/legs flying everywhere and trying to overthrow the arsenal… into a much smoother operator that toned down the off-shoulder peeking open and slightly muted the leg flourish thus getting better balance—despite the outrageous extension he’s able to achieve. It also just felt like good business to keep believing in what is likely the best pitching development org in the league. They never appeared to waiver in what they were doing with him. I almost never even bother with putting caps on any pitchers ceiling, it’s too difficult and these paths are hardly ever linear. Sometimes it just all comes together, the years of honing and shaping ones craft suddenly clicks. After seeing the progress from Spring Training to this minor league season—and now three big league starts, I am very much believing that is what we are witnessing here.

The stuff is 1000% insane. It’s elite+ and with the possibility that he’s now able to zone up with more regularity, the sky is really the limit. I saw at least 3 upper/in FAs that were comfortably in the zone (to lefties) called balls and a few at the bottom of the zone that were plenty close. Really, the amount of shadow zone misses were quite high, only a handful of non-competitive misses on my chart. He did miss over the heart a couple times, but it almost doesn’t matter with how he throws.

So this is the stuff package I am seeing:

FA— it’s combo of stuff/shape/extension put it in the running for the best in baseball. He only throws the four seamer but will add/subtract depending on the count or situation. That’s a solid harbinger.

FC/SL— I know I just said he only throws the one FA, but really it’s two. The slider that most are losing their mind about it really a seam shifted cutter. He’s been dabbling with it since spring. So we have cut coming in at 94-97 mph and then an actual slider that 91-94 mph range. Both work very well and have just enough distinction to pick up on.

CU— I am also starting to think he has a curve variant, too. We are seeing a turbo curve extremely hard at 88-91 mph and then another that he parks more at 86/87 mph. This is all much more speculative and could simply be him ripping off some extra power breakers, but the high velo ones seem to get super late downward action, while the ‘slower’ ones are running more dual plane. Very TBD, just maybe noteworthy.

CH— this one is just nasty, it’s a kick-change from what I’ve read, but it’s been difficult to find a shot of his finger positioning at the finish. This pitch may be the X-factor, with it’s arm side tumble. He is pushing it some, but if he starts trusting it by starting it out over the plate and letting the natural movements take over…my goodness, it could develop into a monster. Ideally it shouldn’t register as firm as Edward Cabrera’s turbo change, even though a few have been right there, the best ones seem to have been more around 91 mph territory. Splitting the difference between the curve and actual slider.

The command has progressively gotten better and better with every turn. There were minor pockets of duress that could have lead to problems, but every time he seemed to zero in and deliver to what the gameplan was calling for. This was a big time game, airing nationally and in front of a packed house, going against the Paul Skenes. The moment did not seem to faze him and he genuinely appears to be a very grounded type of individual. It should also be noted this was his first time (ever?) pitching on 4 days rest. They are certainly going to be building in extra days whenever possible, next week looks like one where they will get him a full 6 days off in between. The mechanics aren’t perfect and achieving that absurd extension takes a lot of unison in his motion, hips and plant leg (esp for someone of his size). We saw him briefly get discombobulated and then get back online in short order. The MIL pitching coach Chris Hook should be an incredible teacher to him and a calming force, same with former pitcher Jim Henderson.

So what does the ROS look like? It’s obviously difficult to say when we factor in the no doubt innings limit that he and the team face. He threw 71 MiLB innings in 2023, last year he reached just over 97. He already had 63 frames in AAA to begin this season. I think it’s a situation where the Brewers are very mindful of high stress innings and rough pitch counts more than a customary hard innings cap. The calculus then becomes if a mini shutdown period is needed—given the team’s position in the standings. For the moment at hand, I think he’s around #14-#20 overall on The Arms Index with a very high /start ceiling. We then reassess post AS break as we collect more info from the team and their plans. It should be one heck of a fun ride.