The Look Ahead
Trade Deadline Impacts
A very frantic and enjoyable trade deadline will have some impact on the starting pitcher landscape. Lets rundown the players moving around and how it can have a chain reaction to several rotations going forward!
Shane Bieber/TOR— a very interesting idea by the Jays. I took in the video from his latest AA rehab start against a prospect laden DET affiliate on Tues. He was sitting in the 91-93 range and topping at 94 mph, locating all kinds of good breakers and offspeed pitches. That velo range is perfect for him. He garnered 7K in his 4 innings and began the game by striking out Max Clarke, Jose Briceno and Kevin McGonigle. I looked like several painted pitches that were at least shadow zone, too. It’s sort of a lateral overall move for Biebs, as the park and division get tougher, but the team context greatly improves. I’d expect two more rehab starts, the next one pushing into 65-70 pitches and the final one ascending to that 80-85 pitch mark. I’ve long been a big fan and think he can be a solid asset ROS.
Merrill Kelly/TEX— also a guy that I’ve had considerably higher than most outlets for several years, the Rangers made a great move to secure his services. This is a sizeable improvement for his team and home park factors, not to mention divisional opponents. It’s not a big bounce in general rank placement, he’s been a top 30 guy for me for quite awhile. Texas also (finally) made some nice bullpen additions, which will help this staff and team. I am postulating that Kumar is out of the rotation, but that has not been confirmed as of yet.
Dustin May/BOS— a bit of an underwhelming deadline for the Saux, but May should represent a backend upgrade to the team. He’s in uncharted territory for overall workload, but I don’t see why BOS will care. Maybe they protect him a little, but they are trying to get to the playoffs. I am curious how they will play with his pitch mix, he’s not a FA guy, so I imagine that is why they value him. As I predicted, he’s been too much low floor and mid ceiling and I don’t expect that to really change. The park and division add to the uncertainty with him, leaving him still as a fringe asset best deployed in deeper leagues unless we can spot a marked change.
Chris Paddack/DET— I have not been a fan this season, even referring to him as ‘a sack of potatoes’ and chiding MIN for not selling when he was going better. I still don’t see secondaries that are capable of carrying him, but his command has been plus. This is a huge situational upgrade for him and one that needs to be taken seriously. He worked the zone well in his first Motor City start and tossed the curve much more than usual. There is potential for a slight renaissance here and I think he comfortably rests in that 75-80 area of the ranks now.
Charlie Morton/DET— The tigers further augmented their rotational depth by getting the venerable uncle Chuck. Everything has rebounded for the veteran the past few months after being in the wilderness for the early part of the season. His nasty curve has returned and the 4 seamer has been better with improved sequencing. Much like Paddack, this has to be a big situation boost and one that can also matter. It stinks for Troy Melton, but those are the breaks in this game.
Michael Soroka/CHC— probably a pretty smart move by the Cubs, as he continues to show well in the underlying metrics, despite marginal results. I can see a 10-20 spot boost because of the vastly improved situation.
Adrian Houser/TB— Tampa did it’s usual thing, both adding and subtracting from their roster. This was a little bit of a shocker, but it should work out pretty well for Houser. He’s obviously overachieved this season and we have to expect some give back, especially with the park and division move. The Rays have a tendency to aide pitchers by accentuating their best traits, so a minor boost to beat back regression is well within the range of outcomes here.
Zack Littell/CIN— This is a more difficult one to process, he’s been perfectly decent for deeper formats after a rough beginning to the season. He has a HR issue and has bigly benefited from a .258 babip and unsustainable 86% LOB. Getting out of the AL East is nice, but this park shift is not ideal. He has upped the groundball rate this year and has typically been strong with chase rates and general command. We’ll see what CIN has in store, but dialing back the slider and upping the sweeper and split could give him a punchers’ chance here.
Taj Bradley/MIN— The last piece of the Tampa shuffle (outside of Boyle now having a clear runway) was sending the young Taj to the twin cities. It’s a good gamble for the Twins to take. The park should be better for him, but the team context is shot to hell. Either way, it’s better than him pitching in Durham and I would expect him to join the rotation in fairly short order. He’s just one to monitor outside of 15+ team leagues, but there is certain upside in his arm.
Mick Abel/MIN— likely a great move for both teams in this deal, I still have some belief in Mick. It’s not a pretty team context, as cited above, but he should still find a way to finish out the season in their rotation. It may not be a huge ceiling with him, but there is some possible deep league utility and he deserves to be tracked.
Jack Perkins/ATH— he could move into the rotation to close out the season and can matter in many formats, despite a difficult home park to navigate. I like the stuff with him a good amount. He could also find his way to the closer role and have even more impact, really hard to say what they decide. Monitor closely here.
Nestor Cortes/SD— the brewers decided to shed salary, despite having the best record in baseball, and gave away Nestor for practically nothing to the Pads. He’s looked generally more like the better version of himself on rehab, so it’s a worthy move for SD to make. It’s also a big park upgrade for him. Expectations are marginal, but he is one to watch for deeper leagues and should place somewhere in the mid 80s of the ranks now.
JP Sears/SD— he further augments the SD rotation and could be a solid enough streamer for deep leagues, given the great park shift and better team context.
Anthony DeSclafani/ARI— I expect him to replace Kelly in the Dbacks rotation now, but there is also a chance they leave him in long relief and provide newly acquired Kohl Drake a good shot. Tony DeScla has quietly looked solid, regaining some velo and locating a little swing and miss. Just a monitor situation in very deep leagues.
Ryan Gusto/MIA— interesting swap by the Marlins and while I don’t see an immediate opening, the park boost is notable and he can pitch a little.
Ryan Bergert/KC— I think the Royals did well here and Bergert gets a solid boost, should be hop into the rotation. He has enough stuff and decent pitchability. Should also note that Stephen Kolek hopped on the same flight to the plains. One of them should hold down a spot until Ragans is ready, which could be a minute.
Bailey Falter/KC— he is probably more assured of a spot right now. It’s pretty low upside with a decent enough floor for super deep formats or to be streamed in good matchups.
Khal Stephen/CLE— the prospect moving from TOR for Bieber has shot up my ranks this season and now finds himself in a great situation. He’s dealing with a shoulder impingement that is considered ‘minor’ so I don’t view him as an option this season, but be sure to check your dynasty leagues and make sure he’s owned. He has excellent control/command and a starters full arsenal with a workhorse frame.
Kendry Rojas/MIN— another top SP prospect that the Jays moved, he has been awesome in a small sample and the lefty has plenty of juice with good looking command. They even bumped him all the way up to AAA before the trade. I don’t see why the Twins would call him up in a lost season, but he’s absolutely a guy to track for dynasty and could matter as soon as early summer next season.
That should about cover everything semi relevant from all the deadline action, please feel free to ask about anyone I may have missed. Thank you for reading!