Index Impacts 10.0
Buy/Sell Edition Part 1
Good midweek to everyone! I’ve been playing catch up the past several days, reviewing video/cutup from the action I missed this past weekend and staying current with all the various happening in the MLB, especially as it pertains to the rotations. I think this will layout the strongest if I begin by combing through my Ranks Tiers, highlighting the smart buys and the prudent sells—based off of the pitch data/metrics and my general instincts.
It’s always a relative —and league specific— thing when suggesting these buys/sells, as it takes the right situation and the right owner for this to make sense, but it does provide some actionable maneuvers for us to seek. ERA is the least predictive stat generally available to us, and also the most overrated by owners, so going after guys with artificially high ones is often the simplest and sharpest way to get in front of league mates. It’s certainly not a foolproof method though, so we need to see it collide with other statistical markers for the odds to better work in our favor. There is nuance to this, it can’t be as simple as go after the guys that are struggling and sell the ones that have the results everyone loves. I am sure the owners in my leagues would like to “buy high” on Misiorowski from me, but good luck! We are staying as realistic as possible here.
Lets hit the buys first here in Pt 1 and then the sells tomorrow in Pt 2. It will be in descending order from my latest Arms Index, not in the preference of how I’d attempt to acquire.
Guys I am Buying:
Tarik Skubal/DET (LR #2)— Obviously the shitty news surfaced after I published my fresh May ranks, but reading the tea leaves seems to suggest this isn’t going to be the lengthy absence most were anticipating. I am not an injury optimist, as has been made clear in much of my analysis, but getting him at the right price is the sort of 2nd H tilt move that can win us lots of cash. Most every team that owns him (certainly in redraft) took him in RD1, and a solid chunk of those teams are now behind. If they envision competing, they will be open to stuff that can help them stay in it now, so if you’ve built the proper amount of depth, then striking now on this distressed asset is the play.
Bryan Woo/SEA (LR #7)— I was clearly undeterred when publishing my May ranks, but I did notice a bunch of other experts in group think mode and moving him well down. Buying is going to be tougher now, but I still think it’s worth the effort. The bat missing in back on the menu and we know how sturdy the floor will work. It’s possible that his owner still isn’t convinced and feels that there is elevated health risk in his profile, making him a good buy.
Jesus Luzardo/PHI (LR #16)— His owners are likely teetering on edge and could be ready to move on, just given the very uneven results. There is no degradation of stuff happening here, so this is as obvious as it gets.
Gavin Williams/CLE (LR #24)— Another one where the results have been slightly erratic as of late, but both the stuff and command give me a ton of faith. It might be the single best window to acquire him as we’ll see. Find the box score boy in your league and get to work. We’ll see how big of an impact new stud defensive catcher, Patrick Bailey, has for Gavin and this Guardians staff. But I saw plenty enough of Bo Naylor and his work to believe this is a likely large net gain.
Logan Webb/SF (LR #25)— This is pretty well synced up for a purchase. Not only is he dealing with some very average general results, but also an IL stint now. I don’t think the knee stuff explains everything away, but it likely had an impact on his command, at least. Buying guys on what appears to be a sinking Giants ship isn’t going to be for everyone, but I’ll take a discounted rate on one of the true pro’s pro with a very solid track record.
Braxton Ashcraft/PIT (LR #36)— Nobody was higher on him later last season than I was, and I did my level best to make sure you guys were on board for this year. He’s been even better than advertised and watching him work on the mound is just a delight. He goes right after batters and works at one of the quickest paces in the game. Some galaxy brained experts are undoubtedly going to recommend selling based on sustainability and innings fears, but I would go the other direction and say that he’s just scratching the surface and has room to grow as a pitcher. Exploit the fears of owners that are listening to the wrong people.
Spencer Strider/ATL (LR #38)— I am apparently one of the few that stuck this out, even after a thoroughly flat season debut in COL. I told everyone after that turn, it was okay to be unimpressed, but also patient, and give this the month of May. Was it all magically fixed with his second turn in LA? No, not really, but it was a better data point. The skeptics will still greatly outnumber folks that want to believe, which does present a buying opportunity. I am still tepid, but as I’ve maintained, this iteration can work. It has to do with the curve looking more like a legit weapon than ever before, providing a needed south mover. I also think a good change up is lurking here too, it’s different than last year—both up in speed and how it moves. Again, this is all stuff I was seeing and talking about in Spring Training, too. The Braves are on fire right now and help buoy the profile, so does the bat missing. Don’t be afraid to shoot a shot! Playing scared is a good way to finish in 4th place.
Jack Leiter/TEX (LR #48)— I keep preaching patience with the younger guys and fully believe he will get there soon enough. It’s pretty simply a sequencing issue when watching Leiter, the command will play fine, even it he’s prone for it to go sideways intermittently. We want bit missers, and we certainly want them in one of the most favorable home parks in baseball. The upside is worth the volatility and his cost will be rather palatable in most spots.
Connelly Early/BOS (LR #57)— He appears to be turning a corner, but the overall numbers are still rather uninspiring, making him a guy to sniff around on. I expect the K’s to continue and the floor to elevate. The Braves are next on the schedule, so some owners might think they are selling high if you toss them something decent.
Ryan Weathers/NYY (LR #58)— Most of the analysis will center around how he has a possible expiration date, something I’ve had to cite myself. But these things have a natural way of working themselves out. I am just seeing the Max Fried news now with my final edits, ugh. Regardless, Weathers has earned his status and feels likely to even improve as he dials back up the velocity. The change up, sweeper and slider all appear plus.
Brandon Sproat/MIL (LR #64) and Logan Henderson/MIL (LR #70)— I am going to lump these two together, as I am seeing plenty of analysts that are scared about role shifts, so use that to your advantage, as these guys are locked in pieces for one of the best teams going. Sproat continues to have a struggle frame or leave a pitch hanging, but all the signals for him figuring this out are present. I am still seeing mechanical issues pop up, but he’s doing a better job with his lower half and hips, and it seems mostly like a head lead issue that turns to overthrowing. Contreras obviously spots this quickly and usually settles him down. The cutter is showing in a manner that can only be described as “Corbin Burnes like” which if you know me, is saying a tremendous amount. Just get in and ride this out, it won’t hardly cost anything and what more can you say about the MIL lab/coaching track record. Henderson is shoring up a long-term spot, especially given how the Crew have been telegraphing their plans with the Chad Patrick usage. Henderson does have health red flags, but the stuff looks great and he’s trending up the ranks in a hurry.
Mike Burrows/HOU (LR #71)— This is a tougher one, but my stubbornness with him has finally started to produce some gains. I don’t think he’s a any sort of actual needle mover for most of our formats, but he can be useful. He was straight dropped in many of my leagues and I gladly took the plunge for the price of (basically) free.
Keider Montero/DET (LR #78)— He’s another one that isn’t going to win us leagues or anything, but I have been generally impressed with his work, and likely capacity to augment our staffs going forward. He is quite possibly still languishing out on the FA pool in your leagues, so I’d just make the move.
Lucas Giolito/SD (LR #82)— He is not a favorite of mine, but I am seeing him relatively available, and he’s worth taking a shot with. It’s a good enough situation and he’s shown better on his final ramp up.
Davis Martin/CHW (LR #93)— Martin just keeps chugging along. With the data I had available for the May ranks, this was fairly aggressive. Now it looks like a big under rank, and given the pitch quality I am seeing, he is heading towards a lot higher adjustment. His slider is very capable of expansion and keeping the regression marginal. I think you can still get him at a reasonable cost.
Peter Lambert/HOU (LR #97)— I think the stuff is real enough to consider him a tick above streamer status. The reverse splits are becoming an issue, but the slider and cutter show okay and could be increased to combat this some. Lefties are having extreme difficulties with the plus change up, so hopefully opposing managers don’t catch wind. His FA works with his angle and the shape created. Also interesting is how good he’s been when given the shot to turn a lineup over for a 3rd time.
Jared Jones/PIT (LR IL #4)— I’d be scrambling to give up what it takes to get him before he catches any further helium. We are seeing all the signals on rehab that lend towards not only utility, but likely pockets of dominance. Very few in the industry arrived quicker than I did with Jones, or pumped him up as quickly. He’s got the traits we want and the situation looks great. Hopefully the role ambiguity can be leveraged in any talks to acquire him.
Jack Wenninger/NYM (PL #4)— He’s not been amazing in AAA, but very steady and I’d bet he gets a look within the next few weeks, even without an injury. Making now the time to speculate in many formats.
One final note, and hopefully you guys won’t mind indulging me, but the reason I was a little behind this week was because my daughter played in her first games and U10 tournament this past weekend. Last year she earned one of only two open spots on one of the best teams in the tri-county area. She worked very hard to better herself as both a pitcher and player throughout the off-season and was rewarded with an opening game start on the mound. She ended up pitching in 5 of 6 games, starting most, throwing over 220 pitches, and nearly getting the team to the finals. Lots of K’s and just a couple walks/hits. It was a very proud dad moment for me.
Congrats on the proud Dad moment! I have four grown kids, and miss those times, it’s what it’s all about. Enjoy.
Congrats Steven--great work on both fronts haha!