Index Impacts 11.0
Buy/Sell Edition Part 2!
Hello everyone! Please check out yesterday’s Part 1 that goes over the various realistic buys that I can identify. Here we’ll focus on some of the pitchers that I tend to view as better sells. It’s always tricky (and very relative) when laying these out, especially so when it comes to the sells. Generally someone has to have either good established name value or a snapshot of higher end performance for us to extract a meaningful return. Any good league trade probably shouldn’t be an auto click, it should make you think. Even as a pitching evaluator, I’m usually in favor of dealing pitching for hitting, at least in keeper/dynasty formats, but the main problem with it in other setups is that the injuries are really mounting, and there is almost no way you can have too much pitching—so that is a big part of the overall calculus. Let’s stop pretending we know who will get hurt, because they all throw plenty hard and mostly all still get hurt, it’s just the nature of the position. A lot of this comes down to small elevated risks, which is also part of the general formula.
Like yesterday, I will comb through my tiers of The Arms Index and rundown players in descending order, not by my overall sell preference. I also included a little WHIP Around section at the end to go over yesterday, it has nothing to do with the sells, but I don’t want you guys to feel neglected on current happenings ;)
Guys I am Selling:
Logan Gilbert/SEA (LR #11)— I don’t think he a top 10 SP right now, so if you can get a package centered around him, then it’s worth listening. He’s got the age, brand name and recent performance. I just don’t see the stuff being quite the high quality we expect. His K rate is more inline with his career and point to last year being a possible career outlier. This is dicey because he’s such a tinkerer, much like many of the SEA guys, and it may have just taken some time to optimize. His schedule is also setting up very strong, with the Pads and White Sox next, so it’s gotta be quite the haul to deal him now and it might make more sense to let these play out and then look to maximize the return.
Shota Imanaga/CHC (LR #17)— This pains me, but he has to be considered a sell high, and most every savvy player, pretty much knows it. I don’t succumb to group think and prefer to operate against the grain, so long as I see a proper avenue. The only real data we have shows that he tapers off in the second half. I adore the whiffs he’s generating, and there is much more to his game than FA velo, but that is already beginning to trend down. He’s a fly ball guy that allows a fair amount of HRs and plays in a park that can turn on a dime with the winds. Granted, it’s been super friendly, and to a level that I can never recall prior, but that is not a certain variable either. It has to be a killer return to deal him off, as his command and secondary depth could make this all very foolish when we add it up.
Joe Ryan/MIN (LR #18)— This one is trickier, but he has the sort of established name that can still fetch a nice return. We’ve already dodged several bullets when it comes to him, but maybe another owner isn’t fully aware. I never panic with health risks, but this one just feels too obvious to not try to eject on. We’ve seen this movie before and all know how it ends.
Kevin Gausman/TOR (LR #28)— I really value what he brings and he’s exceeded my general ranking of him the past few seasons. I can’t shake the feeling that he still makes for a proper sell high. It’s still a good FA, but there is simply nothing for him to pivot to on a night where the splitter feel isn’t all the way there. Granted he’s made an entire career on this pitch, but we’ve seen it disappear for long stretches, too. It hasn’t looked as sharp lately. I wouldn’t panic or anything, but I’d absolutely listen and try to figure out a trade that makes sense for your team specific needs.
MacKenzie Gore/TEX (LR #40)— He’s a guy I was well above market on last season, and boy it was a blast in the first several months. I took a more bearish approach this season, despite a massive home park upgrade and better overall situation. This isn’t so much about the fact that he’s face planted bigly the past several summers, I am more agnostic about that, even if it’s a thing, until it isn’t. I am just not seeing any real arsenal adjustments, besides adding an average sinker. The command is a threat to go sideways, too. He’s been perfectly solid in general, but I don’t think there is another gear coming. The bat missing always sways me some, but he’s still a guy I’d get in front on and shop fairly hard.
Emmet Sheehan/LAD (LR #45)— I think he’s a great pitcher, even with the diminished velo working against him. The secondaries are really carrying the profile here and I am starting to wonder if the Dodgers decide to alter his role in the near future—both as a means to suppress general innings, but also as a reaction to the obvious fact that his stuff starts to wane around the 50-60 pitch mark. They will have all sorts of options available soon enough, even through attrition, and I think he makes for a clear candidate to work as something other than a traditional starter.
Randy Vasquez/SD (LR #46)— He’s made clear and static strides with his stuff and bat missing, there is no doubt about that. We are starting to see that slow up a little though and now is a smart time to see what someone will deal for him. I like that he can mix in 6 or even 7 pitches on a given night, it should keep his floor plenty workable, but we might have seen his ceiling sort of peak. I am not a big xStats guy, but they have a place on the discussion spectrum, and they feel like he’s overachieving—which he basically did the entire season last year.
Bubba Chandler/PIT (LR #49)— I said we have to give him May yet, and I think that’s prudent still. I am just not seeing the development with him as hoped. It’s mostly the fact that he can’t locate a complimentary secondary pitch to augment all the plus FAs and change ups. I thought the slider would be good enough, but he just puts it over the heart and can command it whatsoever. I have been impressed with the FA command lately, it has improved. The walks are likely to remain an issue, but things could be a lot worse if it wasn’t for a paltry .229 babip and 75% strand rate. Most people still recognize this is a dynamite arm and development isn’t linear—use it leverage a decent return, even in more long term setups.
Joey Cantillo/CLE (LR #68)— This is probably not a surprise to my readers. He’s exchanged some of the bat missing for slight command gains and it’s not something I find very attractive, at least in a holistic sense. The situation remains plus around him and his recent turns should spark just enough interest, but I don’t like his floor, and now I am questioning the ceiling with the whiffs falling back. He’s not moving back on the index all that much, just given the landscape, but I still think the other shoe is going to drop here eventually.
Spencer Arrighetti/HOU (LR #75)— The command is too inconsistent, even if I really like a decent chunk of his profile. It’s too dangerous of a floor for me and think pain is coming in short order, especially via the HRs—given his flyball tendencies and his PullAir % rate. Use the shiny surface stats and get the hell out.
Michael Soroka/ARI (LR #77)— He’s been pretty damn solid and someone I really enjoy rooting for, but putting that aside, I think he makes sense to try and sell high on. I don’t think the numbers or health are very sustainable and I’ve also noticed that others seem to rank him a lot higher than I do. It should give you a good window to cash out. It’s not an automatic, by any means, as his babip is pretty foolish at .345, but I just don’t see much besides the 2 main pitches and that’s a fine line to walk, even with good command.
Foster Griffin/WAS (LR #90)— Foster the People’s ratios has been a revelation, when not having to deal with the Brewers offense, and even then he’s been just fine. This is a guy I expect to outpace the peripherals, because watching him pitch really tells the story. He uses the entire zone and knows how to extend it in order to generate solid chase, and on a true seven pitch mix. He’s likely to rise in the ranks, but the regression is virtually certain, given a .216 babip and 84% strand rate. Maybe someone will pay for the stats already achieved and you gain an edge in the margins.
Mitch Keller/PIT (LR #104)— I’ve noticed he’s wildly overrated on other lists, he is fine for what he is, but it’s still a meh ceiling and middling floor for me. He works for a number of build styles, but I’d have no issue letting him go in a deal, again gaining in the margins would be the objective.
Bailey Ober/MIN (LR #111)— This one feels pretty heavy handed after last night’s performance, but he was already trending this way prior to the Maddux masterpiece. This should be easy work now, and while he’s done some very solid things in this leagues, I want no part of the floor that comes with this stuff. Warm weather and regression are approaching, even if the xStats generally feel like he’s earning it.
Quinn Priester/MIL (IL #14)— It really stinks for him, dealing with TOS, after such a solid season and establishing himself as one of the true breakouts. But the stuff seems dead in the water and the pause/restart simply won’t change much, if we are being pragmatic about it. Use his numbers last year to an injury optimist and churn on.
WHIP Around
I thought it made sense to quickly highlight a few guys from yesterday. Kyle Bradish/BAL with a good start and breaking out the curve a lot more lately. The command still isn’t there, but the stuff still shows improvement with big SwStr gains. I regret to say we aren’t out of the woods yet, especially with a Rays team he has really struggled against in his career next on the docket, but have to feel better about him getting back closer to his career norms. Bryce Miller/SEA is BACK, even if the box score brigade boys will scoff at last nights results, don’t let it distract you from the fact that his stuff looked awesome, like everything is well up. The whiffs and K’s will absolutely be back on soon enough. He held his FA velo very well and the shape is crazy good. He’s also reintroducing the sweeper and it looked great. That will change things for the better if it remains static, even if he’s very fastball forward. We understand the volatility here and certainly the elevated health risks, but it was a minimal investment and he’s looking at a placement near the Top 50 of the ranks. Ryne Nelson/ARI is still getting bit by picking a bad time to toss a poor pitch, but the stuff is speaking louder lately and I think he’s going to be a useful asset moving forward. He’s finally pivoting off the extreme heavy FA usage more and the slider continues to profile decently, and we are getting more cutters and curves. The curve in particular was being landed in the lowest quadrant and beneath it quite well last night. The cutter locations were also improved. Max Meyer/MIA continues to miss bats and pitch well. This is much more sustainable than we’ve seen in the past from him. The sweeper is vastly improved and a weapon. The altered change up I’ve continued to bring up with him, is finally looking legit, too. He’s worth looking into buying. I’m still in judging mode on Griffin Jax/TB and if this can work for actual fantasy utility. He did not look particularly sharp or very good from a pure bat missing angle, but did get to more of his arsenal. It looks like 3 good pitches, but not much to combat lefties. He might crack the Top 100, but it says more about the general state of pitching, than anything I am seeing, at least yet. I’d probably add in anything deeper than 14T, though. I prefer Braxton Garrett/MIA for a speculative add. I’ll be watching Zebby Matthews/MIN closely today.
Burying the lede here, but what can be said about Jacob Misiorowski/MIL…I am running out of superlatives for his stuff and unreal command growth. Last night was his most complete performance to date. The slider was awesome, several at 96/97+ mph, with very weak contact against when they got to it. The general command was superb, and it’s not just about zoning up, as he’s beginning to operate where he wants in the shadow zone. Fun fact, he’s added 30 pounds and gone up several pants sizes since the mid point of last year, which I did not know and couldn’t tell! The work both he and this staff has done can not be complimented enough. He’s built for this and is a slam dunk Top 10 overall SP moving forward, possibly Top 5, even with LAD and CHC on deck. The longer term subs know the score with how early I arrived on the Miz and please check out my re-stack note from early last summer!
Take care and thank you for reading my stuff!
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