Snap Reactions 3.0
Noteworthy from the Notebook
Welcome back to the triumphant return of Snap Reactions. We’ve got about 4 days of micro samples to gauge. This piece dovetails nicely with my Index Impacts and will focus more on pitching performances and what can really be drawn from them, at this point. We’re obviously all excited to be getting game action again, but we must be pragmatic about these ‘results’ and aim to be proactive, and not overtly reactive. It’s a super fine line, but something I’ve always prided myself on.
One quick general observation I’ll make before getting into the player notes—and I haven’t noticed a single other person theorizing this, but seeing some of these early exit velo numbers and general metrics, I wonder if we might have a small shift back towards the ‘happy fun ball’ days of 5 to 6 years ago? It would be a classic reaction for MLB to do something along these lines (or just some ball variance if you don’t like conspiracies). It is also highly speculative by me and could be a simply calibration issue with the tech, but there’s nothing wrong with thinking about it. I am a big proponent of drafting bats with the initial 3 draft picks, and possibly as many as 5 in certain formats. Part of it is the ability to backfill with outstanding values given my ranks, but it just makes more sense to lock in the stability of bankable impact on that side of the game—and it might be even more prudent, given this very early trend. Just an early angle to consider!
Also please keep in mind my cutting edge explanation matrix for how we need to view a lot of this Spring pitching, apologies for the very analytic forward chart:
It’s obviously tongue firmly planted in cheek, but usually rings fairly true. Very little can be gained by shifting a ton of my base analysis on some 250-300 arms that I’ve done significant legwork on. I am mainly looking for 3 things. 1) what is the velo and shape of pitches and has it fundamentally changed, either for the better or worse 2) are there any mechanical alternations that can be noted and 3) it’s good to get excited about fresh shifts, especially for younger arms, but will the results have a tangible effect on how the team is setting up their respective waterfall of rotation options. The last one is the real key. Track record absolutely matters far more than a burst of 15 good ST innings. Before I had this substack outlet, I sounded the alarm on Strider after watching his work live in Spring Training—even though there was no obvious path to the rotation. I did the same with Crochet just a few years ago, after just a 2 inning early ST start against the Dodgers. Those early sways lead to serious dividends for people that heeded my advice. There have been plenty of other major hits (and big misses) mixed in, but it’s never a bad idea to get aggressive when you see something that is remarkable and different in these performances—even if it has an outcome of under 5-10% or so. Plus the capital it takes is basically negligible in the grand scheme of these fantasy games we play.
Carlos Legrange/NYY— speaking of something remarkable, that was certainly it. What it ultimately means is difficult to determine, but I am firing shots in the leagues where it makes sense. He can probably succeed in the majors if the command/control doesn’t progress past the current 45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) but lets not assume that this 22 yr old is done developing. Prior to last year, he had all of 96 developmental innings in 3 pro seasons. He then stayed healthy and the stuff leapt forward, though he battled often with true control of this absurd stuff in his 23 starts/120 IP last year. The mechanics are not at all bad, despite all the whispers of the dreaded bullpen or being a Dellin Betances type clone. In fact they looked pretty toned down (much like The Miz looked to me last ST) compared to the AA footage I was viewing from last year. The Yanks absolutely know what they are doing here and he’ll likely at least begin back at AA, with an outside shot at AAA. The stuff is pornographic and it isn’t all built on the back of the plus/plus FA and SL combo. The cutter is at a beautiful spot on his velo spectrum and I saw several obscenely good change ups in the glimpse from last Saturday. That pitch still portends as one that will be tough to land for strikes, but it could be such a finishing weapon against lefties that are geared up for 100+ mph or sliders ripping across the plate laterally. I am excited, if you can’t tell.
Chris Sale/ATL— he looked in mid-season form. He’s got an easy top 5 overall SP ceiling and remains a huge value in early drafts. I see zero reason to hedge on him, all these dudes have plenty of risks, as we well know.
Brandon Woodruff/MIL— he opened up to the media yesterday, confirming what I was assuming all along, that opening day isn’t the true target for him. Regardless, I don’t think he’ll be far behind, they just want to slow play it—and for sound reasons. He’s being relied upon to front this rotation, but April is hectic and they have plenty of reasonable pivots. I am still plenty fine with his #35 overall placement and doubt he slides much off that spot. We know he can not only be successful with this current incarnation of himself, but pretty close to a sub-ace with a sturdy floor/ceiling combo. He’s also had a fair amount of setbacks during his winding road back, so it takes the proper gamble point in drafts and smart building around him.
Logan Henderson/MIL— I would take something strange for him to not make this rotation. He’s too good and now has re-introduced his curve ball to the mix, this was pretty close to a plus offering for him early in his career. It’s a welcomed development for someone that could really use a south mover, not to mention something glove side, so it’s big on two fronts. It was only a brief glimpse, though, so we can’t exactly count on anything yet, but I like that it’s something he’s had in his bag and not some brand new thing that he was toying around with during throwing sessions.
Joe Ryan/MIN— big buzzkill news that he was scratched on Sat, but the news sounds as good as it can for what was described as lower back soreness. I am more concerned about this being close to an oblique. If it’s just back, then no reason to slide him down much. An oblique/side complicates things and usually is a 6 week minimum issue and often comes with a heightened risk of re-injury. We have to tread lightly.
Merrill Kelly/ARI— this one sounds like a more garden-variety lower back thing, but the imaging results were strangely withheld from actual disclosure, despite several days passing now. That is a red flag, to be sure. I’d put the odds of him making his opening day start at no better than 50/50 until we hear a diagnosis.
OFF ON THE RIGHT FOOT
Just a quick smattering of guys that looked good in their truncated debuts. Mick Abel/MIN showed a nice arsenal in his bid to secure an early season rotation spot and so did Taj Bradley/MIN. This is going to be a big ST for all these arms in MIN, results are going to matter, as I’ve said. Lots of value driven breakouts are possible, so we’ll be monitoring closely there. Drew Anderson/DET has gotten a bit buried and might open in a long role, but his stuff looked very encouraging. Ryan Bergert/KC only got an inning and might have been airing out some, but the velo was well up and he has been a sleeper guy that I have gotten behind in deeper formats. I think he’s the easy number #6 there and it’s a lot of veteran types that have had plenty of health issues lately. He’s a few strong weeks and the right circumstances away from being a top 80 or so SP for me. Rhett Lowder/CIN looked strong in his return and while I obviously don’t buy that he is beating out Burns, he sets up as one of the strongest #6 rotation members in our game, and a great bench stash. Carson Whisenhunt/SF was a guy that I was much higher on coming up than most analysts. Then last year happened and I felt thoroughly duped. The plus/plus change was extremely meh and the FA was missing several ticks. Now he looks much stronger and cleaner in his motion and the FA seems to have really ticked up. The mojo also might be all the way back on his change. It all adds up to him being a possible front-runner for the #6 gig in the bay and it’s not like Roupp is all that established. Keep an eye on Blade Tidwell/SF, too. Backfield/practice reports are quite good. Both Connelly Early/BOS and Payton Tolle/BOS were impressive in their spring debuts and hold tremendous speculative value. The coming weeks bear watching very closely.
I think you mentioned you might do a dynasty pitcher column which would be awesome. How do you think you would rank the following guys for dynasty with the goal of finding a future SP1 or SP2 type: Ryan Sloan, Brody Hopkins, Troy Melton, Carlos Lagrange, and JR Ritchie. I’ve got all 5 but will need to drop one or two at some point this year.